瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in Q1 2026, with the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season, leading to a slight rise in tin ore processing fees and a potential easing of the tight supply situation [3]. - Most smelting enterprises have low raw material inventories and are operating at a loss. End - of - year maintenance has limited refined tin production, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Chinese New Year [3]. - Indonesian tin exports are increasing, opening the import window and increasing import pressure [3]. - The development of the AI field will significantly boost the demand for solder. The recent decline in tin prices has improved the downstream procurement atmosphere, with a significant drop in inventory and warehouse receipts, and an increase in the spot premium [3]. - Technically, the increase in positions and price recovery indicate a repair of market sentiment. It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term wide - range adjustments, with attention focused on the 380,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 392,080 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8,740 yuan/ton. The closing price of the March - April contract for Shanghai tin is - 450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 210 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 50,295 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4,690 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract for Shanghai tin is 35,914 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 481 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in futures for Shanghai tin is - 7,951 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,855 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 7,095 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons [3]. - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 10,468 tons (weekly), with a week - on - week increase of 748 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME tin are 365 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 90 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 7,411 tons (daily), with a week - on - week decrease of 377 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 395,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13,150 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market 1 tin spot price is 395,910 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 18,710 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 2,970 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4,410 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 245.25 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 54.75 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons (monthly), with a month - on - month increase of 2,500 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 381,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13,150 yuan/ton [3]. - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 385,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13,150 yuan/ton [3]. - The processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons. The import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 323.25 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 250,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8,150 yuan/ton. The cumulative output of tinplate is 1.5287 million tons (monthly), with a month - on - month increase of 138,700 tons [3]. - The export volume of tinplate is 142,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4,500 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council aim to stabilize grain output at around 1.4 trillion catties and promote the combination of AI and agriculture [3]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan said that more than 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are needed this year, and the US House of Representatives approved a government financing bill to end a partial shutdown [3].