沪铜产业日报-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The SHFE copper main contract fluctuates with a bullish bias, the open interest increases, the spot is at a discount, and the basis strengthens. The raw material cost support logic remains strong due to the tight supply of copper concentrate and geopolitical impacts. The domestic copper production may slightly decline due to raw material supply constraints and the approaching holiday. The downstream may have some demand for bargain hunting after the significant decline in copper prices, but the actual trading remains cautious due to the off - season and the upstream's reluctance to sell. Domestic copper inventories show seasonal accumulation. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly lower implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis with a slightly shrinking red bar. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades with a light position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE copper futures main contract is 105,160 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 13,457 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the SHFE copper main contract is 192,908 lots, up 1021 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of SHFE copper is - 51,182 lots, up 3611 lots. The LME copper inventory is 176,125 tons, up 1450 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 233,004 tons, up 7067 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 37,075 tons, down 800 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warehouse receipts are 159,772 tons, down 2856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 104,405 yuan/ton, up 3085 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 104,895 yuan/ton, up 3660 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 43 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 35 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 755 yuan/ton, up 2425 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 69.40 dollars/ton, down 10.23 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.80 million tons. The copper smelter's TC is - 49.84 dollars/kiloton, down 0.05 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 91,590 yuan/metal ton, up 230 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 92,290 yuan/metal ton, up 230 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 2,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,190 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan, up 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8278.814 billion yuan, up 419.724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of SHFE copper is 43.27%, down 0.47%; the 40 - day historical volatility of SHFE copper is 35.35%, up 0.01%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 35.56%, down 0.0089; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.48, up 0.0512 [2] Industry News - Thirty provinces in China have determined their GDP growth targets for 2026, with many major economic provinces setting the target above 5%. Shanghai aims for about 5% GDP growth in 2026 and will accelerate major industrial projects in areas such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence. In January, the sales volume of 6 types of household appliances and 4 types of digital and smart products exceeded 15 million units, with sales of nearly 59 billion yuan. The offline sales of home appliance trade - ins and new digital and smart product purchases accounted for nearly 80%, with a year - on - year increase of about 20%. Fed's Barkin said that rate - cut measures support the job market and the inflation - fighting task still has the last step. Fed's Mille said that rates need to be cut by slightly more than one percentage point this year. The central government issued the No. 1 central document, aiming to expand rural consumption, support the development of new consumption formats in rural areas, and promote the construction and renewal of rural circulation infrastructure [2]