瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is characterized by a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the daily range of V2605 is estimated to be around 5000 - 5200. Although the fundamentals show high - level inventory accumulation and a bearish supply - demand drive, the market has an optimistic expectation for the alleviation of future supply pressure, which provides some support to the market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC is 5155 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan; the trading volume is 2182106 lots, down 24041 lots; the open interest is 1152260 lots, up 102782 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1065605 lots, up 44081 lots; the short positions are 1203361 lots, up 61292 lots; the net long positions are - 137756 lots, down 17211 lots [2] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4945 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4808.46 yuan/ton, up 22.69 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4868.12 yuan/ton, down 6.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 305 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2616 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 417 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 448 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 199 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 194 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.93%, up 0.19%. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 80.58%, up 0.58%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.02%, down 0.72%. The total social inventory of PVC is 58.47 tons, up 0.82 tons; the inventory in East China is 53.58 tons, up 0.84 tons; the inventory in South China is 4.89 tons, down 0.02 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58769.96 square meters, up 5313.26 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 659890.29 square meters, up 3824.09 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, up 2871.41 billion yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 20.55%, up 0.44%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.62%, up 0.3%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.9%, up 0.44%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.89%, up 0.47% [2] Industry News - From January 24th to 30th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 78.93%, up 0.19% month - on - month. The downstream product operating rate of PVC decreased by 0.11% to 44.75%, with the pipe operating rate remaining stable at 37% and the profile operating rate remaining stable at 31.52%. As of January 29th, the social inventory of PVC was 120.64 tons, up 2.45% month - on - month. V2605 rose 1.92% to close at 5155 yuan/ton. The national average cost of calcium - carbide - based PVC increased to 5194 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 4896 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC was - 744 yuan/ton, with a slight reduction in losses; the profit of ethylene - based PVC was 21 yuan/ton, turning from loss to profit [2]