瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total supply of natural rubber is shrinking as domestic main - producing areas are in the off - season and overseas areas are transitioning from the peak production to the off - season. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has been increasing, with both bonded and general trade warehouses seeing inventory accumulation. The high prices of natural rubber have led to weak procurement enthusiasm among downstream enterprises, and the出库 volume has decreased significantly month - on - month, driving the continuous inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated last week. Some semi - steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders, slightly increasing their production schedules and supporting the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises. The shipment of all - steel tires was mediocre, and some enterprises still had production control, dragging down the capacity utilization rate slightly. Due to the high prices of various raw materials, some enterprises began to arrange the "Spring Festival" holiday from late January to early February, and the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to decline in the short term. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,600 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,500 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 16,385 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 13,300 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,085 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 159,917 lots, up 6,412 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 51,371 lots, up 28,021 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 41,091 lots, up 965 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 9,639 lots, down 1,244 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 111,570 tons, up 700 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 50,600 tons, down 303 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,945 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. - The price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,940 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,080 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 was 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 285 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,050 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,469 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 169 yuan/ton, down 117 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 60.61 Thai baht/kg, up 0.21 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 57.2 Thai baht/kg, down 0.2 Thai baht. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 58.8 Thai baht/kg, down 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 4 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 19.93 million tons, up 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 39.63 million tons, up 9.41 million tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.44%, down 0.18 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.84%, up 0.28 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 46.78 days, down 0.02 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 48.78 days, up 0.25 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.86 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.39 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces. [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 20.74%, down 0.34 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.59%, up 0.22 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 25.35%, up 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 25.32%, up 0.06 percentage points. [2] 3.6 Industry News - In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), basically flat compared with December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 722,000 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. - As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons or 1.23% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons, an increase of 3.34%; the general trade inventory was 494,100 tons, an increase of 0.82%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of Qingdao natural rubber increased by 5.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.27 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.40 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.35 percentage points. - As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. [2]