Group 1: Sugar Core View - Domestic sugar demand is average, and the international raw sugar price has fallen below the 14.5 - 15 cent shock range, which is expected to drag down domestic sugar. The upward space of domestic sugar is limited, and the 60 - day moving average above has great pressure [3]. Sugar Futures Prices and Spreads - Prices: On February 4, 2026, SR01 closed at 5318 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.72% and a weekly increase of 0.19%; SR03 closed at 5224 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.81% and a weekly increase of 0.54%; SR05 closed at 5210 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.83% and a weekly increase of 0.44%; SR07 closed at 5216 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.81% and a weekly increase of 0.4%; SR09 closed at 5214 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.71% and a weekly increase of 0.31%; SR11 closed at 5231 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.75% and a weekly increase of 0.27%. SB closed at 14.63 cents/pound with a daily increase of 2.59% and a weekly decrease of 0.61%; W closed at 417.3 cents/ton with a daily increase of 2.99% and a weekly increase of 1.02% [4]. - Spreads: SR01 - 05 was 113 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day and 15 yuan from the previous week; SR05 - 09 was - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day and 7 yuan from the previous week; SR09 - 01 was - 103 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous day and up 8 yuan from the previous week; SR01 - 03 was 98 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 28 yuan from the previous week; SR03 - 05 was 15 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day and up 13 yuan from the previous week; SR05 - 07 was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day and 6 yuan from the previous week; SR07 - 09 was - 3 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 1 yuan from the previous week; SR09 - 11 was - 15 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day and up 2 yuan from the previous week; SR11 - 01 was - 88 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day and 6 yuan from the previous week [4]. Sugar Basis - On February 3, 2026, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 50 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan from the previous day and 76 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was - 105 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan from the previous day and 36 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Nanning - SR03 was 148 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan from the previous day and 48 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR03 was - 7 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan from the previous day and 8 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Nanning - SR05 was 163 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day and 61 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR05 was 8 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day and 21 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Nanning - SR07 was 156 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from the previous day and 67 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR07 was 1 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from the previous day and 27 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Nanning - SR09 was 153 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from the previous day and 68 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR09 was - 2 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from the previous day and 28 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Nanning - SR11 was 138 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day and 70 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR11 was - 17 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day and 30 yuan from the previous week [13]. Sugar Import Price Changes - Brazil: On February 4, 2026, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 3939 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day and 110 yuan from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 4985 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day and 144 yuan from the previous week. The price difference between Rizhao and Brazilian sugar was 1457 yuan/ton (in - quota) and 410 yuan/ton (out - of - quota); the price difference between Liuzhou and Brazilian sugar was 1331 yuan/ton (in - quota) and 285 yuan/ton (out - of - quota); the price difference between Zhengzhou sugar and Brazilian sugar was 1153 yuan/ton (in - quota) and 84 yuan/ton (out - of - quota) [16]. - Thailand: The in - quota price of Thai sugar imports was 3984 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day and 116 yuan from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 5044 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day and 152 yuan from the previous week. The price difference between Rizhao and Thai sugar was 1412 yuan/ton (in - quota) and 351 yuan/ton (out - of - quota); the price difference between Liuzhou and Thai sugar was 1286 yuan/ton (in - quota) and 226 yuan/ton (out - of - quota); the price difference between Zhengzhou sugar and Thai sugar was 1108 yuan/ton (in - quota) and 163 yuan/ton (out - of - quota) [16]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - Cotton prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall under the expectation of tight balance, but in the short term, the profits of domestic downstream spinning mills are poor, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is recommended to buy on dips rather than chase the rise. Attention should be paid to the downstream import situation and new order trends [18]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton Futures: On February 4, 2026, Cotton 01 closed at 15210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan with a daily increase of 0.13%; Cotton 05 closed at 14680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan with a daily increase of 0.2%; Cotton 09 closed at 14805 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan with a daily increase of 0.17% [19]. - Cotton Yarn Futures: Cotton Yarn 01 closed at 0 yuan/ton, down 100%; Cotton Yarn 05 closed at 20595 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan with a daily increase of 0.49%; Cotton Yarn 09 closed at 20690 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan with a daily decrease of 0.29% [19]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1420 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; Cotton 01 - 05 was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; Cotton 05 - 09 was - 130 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Cotton 09 - 01 was - 410 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the flower - yarn spread was 5785 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the internal - external cotton spread was 3703 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the internal - external yarn spread was - 51 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [19]. Group 3: Apple Core View - Recently, apple demand has slowed down, and the spot price has loosened, but the futures market is relatively strong. The short - covering of near - month contracts drives the upward movement, and the main contract increases in positions and rises, with the long - side power strengthening. Attention should be paid to whether the logic of the shortage of delivery products can return to the market [24]. Apple Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On February 4, 2026, AP01 closed at 8214 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.76% and a weekly decrease of 1.06%; AP03 closed at 9491 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.79% and a weekly decrease of 0.9%; AP04 closed at 9499 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.85% and a weekly increase of 0.17%; AP05 closed at 9594 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.15% and a weekly increase of 0.65%; AP10 closed at 8310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.65% and a weekly decrease of 1.31%; AP11 closed at 8120 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.11% and a weekly decrease of 1.26%; AP12 closed at 8129 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.01% and a weekly decrease of 1.47% [25]. - Spot Prices: The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 4 yuan/jin, unchanged; the price of Luochuan semi - commodity 70 apples was 4.2 yuan/jin, unchanged; the price of Jingning paper - bagged 75 apples was 5.5 yuan/jin, unchanged; the price of Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 apples was 2.5 yuan/jin, unchanged; the price of Wanrong paper - plus - film 75 apples was 2.3 yuan/jin, unchanged [25]. Apple Spreads and Other Indicators - AP01 - 05 was - 1333 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.57% and a weekly increase of 7.94%; AP05 - 10 was 1229 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.74% and a weekly increase of 9.05%; AP10 - 01 was 104 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 55.22% and a weekly decrease of 3.70%. The main contract basis was - 151 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 101.33% and a weekly increase of 42.45%. The disk profit was - 551 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 16% and a weekly increase of 8.89%. The delivery theoretical price was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged [25]. Group 4: Red Dates Core View - The production of red dates in the 2025/2026 season has been determined. The market focus is on the change in the demand side. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream buyers mainly replenish stocks for rigid demand. In the short term, the red date price may maintain a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival procurement situation of the downstream. In the medium and long term, the overall supply - demand of domestic red dates in the new season is relatively loose, and the price will still be under pressure [30].
软商品日报-20260204
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2026-02-04 10:30