Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by macro - economic factors, policies, and geopolitical events. For example, metals are influenced by supply changes and geopolitical risks, and agricultural products are affected by weather, production forecasts, and policies [2][3][4] - In the short term, most sectors are expected to be in a state of shock adjustment. Some sectors may have short - term upward or downward trends due to specific events, but overall, there is no clear long - term trend [20][25][29] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selections - Caustic Soda: The fundamentals have not improved. The futures price rebounded slightly on the 4th, and the spot price was weakly stable. High inventory and weak demand continue, and the cost side provides some support. The short - term market may be adjusted by shock [2] - Coking Coal: The coal price in Shanxi has loosened, and the price of Mongolian coal has fallen from a high level. The futures price fluctuated and rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is limited, and the inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to view it with a shock and consider arbitrage strategies [3] - Live Pigs: The slaughter volume has increased significantly, and the pre - festival supply - demand game has intensified. The spot price has continued to weaken, and the current supply is loose. Although there is policy support, the short - term rise may be followed by a decline [4] Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On Wednesday, the main indexes fluctuated upward throughout the day, with shrinking trading volume. The energy sector performed well, while the TMT sector showed a significant correction. The four major stock index futures contracts rose with the indexes, and the basis of the main contracts rebounded [5][6] - News: Domestically, there was a phone call between the leaders of China and the United States, emphasizing issues such as the Taiwan issue. Overseas, the Fed announced some policies regarding the pressure test of large - scale banks, and the US service industry PMI index showed certain changes [6][7] - Funding: On February 4, the trading volume of the A - share market was stable, with a total turnover of 2.50 trillion yuan. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2965 billion yuan [7] - Operation Suggestion: After the risk is concentratedly released, the commodity and equity assets have recovered. It is recommended to control portfolio risks and use bullish spread or buy call options on days of deep correction to layout the index [8] Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market showed different trends [9] - Funding: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3025 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds returned to a stable and loose situation [9] - Operation Suggestion: As the equity market rebounds, the trend of treasury bond futures is weakening. It is recommended to pay attention to the financial data in January. In the short term, the 10 - year treasury bond may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.85%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 108 - 108.3. It is recommended to maintain interval operations and arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival [10] Precious Metals - Market Review: US economic data was mixed, and the situation in the Middle East changed repeatedly. Precious metals rose after a high - level fall. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all showed certain increases [11][14] - Outlook: The Fed's interest - rate cut pace has slowed down. Geopolitical risks and investment demand support the price of precious metals. Gold may establish a bottom in the rebound stage, and silver may fluctuate in a wide range. Platinum and palladium may enter a consolidation stage [14][15] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The inventory in three places has increased, and the CL premium has fluctuated. The supply side has some constraints, and the demand side has improved slightly. In the long - term, the price bottom is expected to rise gradually. It is recommended to take a long - term long position at low prices [16][19][20] - Alumina: The warehouse receipts have continued to increase, and the price has fluctuated widely. The supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the high inventory pressure suppresses the price. It is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line [20][22][23] - Aluminum: The price has fluctuated greatly in the short term. The macro - narrative and geopolitical risks have pushed up the price, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then make a long - position layout [23][25] - Aluminum Alloy: The spot price has a premium over the futures price. The cost is the main driving factor, and the supply and demand are both weak seasonally. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [26][29] - Zinc: The price has fallen from a high level, and the spot trading is average. The supply of zinc ore is tight, and the demand is suppressed. The price has limited downward space [30][33] - Tin: Affected by the US stock market sell - off, the price fell at night. The supply has increased, and the demand of some enterprises has declined. In the long - term, it is recommended to take a long - position at low prices [35][38] - Nickel: The price has fluctuated and adjusted. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in a wide range [39][41] - Stainless Steel: The price has rebounded slightly. The cost provides support, and the supply is expected to shrink. It is expected to adjust by shock in the short term [42][44] - Lithium Carbonate: The price has fluctuated and rebounded slightly. The supply is expected to decline, and the demand has certain resilience. It is expected to adjust by shock in the short term [46][48] - Polysilicon: The futures price rose in the afternoon under the influence of the space photovoltaic concept. The supply is expected to decline in February, and the demand is weak. It is expected to stabilize and fluctuate [49][50] - Industrial Silicon: The price has stabilized, and the futures price has fluctuated above the average line. The supply and demand are both weak in February, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton [50][52] Ferrous Metals - Steel: The valuation is not high, and it is recommended to try short - term long positions. The cost has fallen, the supply is at a low level, the demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory has entered the seasonal accumulation stage [53][54] - Iron Ore: The price is under pressure. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak before the Spring Festival, and the high inventory suppresses the price. It is recommended to try short - term short positions [55][56] - Coking Coal: The price has fluctuated and risen. The supply is increasing, the demand is limited, and the inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to view it with a shock and consider arbitrage strategies [58][60] - Coke: The price has fluctuated and risen. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is at a low level, and the inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to view it with a shock and consider arbitrage strategies [61][62] - Silicon Iron: The supply and demand have no major contradictions. The price is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - emotional disturbances [63][64] - Manganese Silicon: The price is running weakly. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is at a low level, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - emotional disturbances [65][67] Agricultural Products - Meal: The supply is loose in February. The US soybean price fluctuates in a range, and the domestic spot supply is loose. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes [68][70] - Live Pigs: The slaughter volume has increased, and the pre - festival supply - demand game has intensified. The spot price has continued to weaken, and the market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [71][72] - Corn: The unilateral driving force is not strong, and the price fluctuates. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [73][75] - Sugar: The international raw sugar price fluctuates, and the domestic spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [76] - Cotton: The spot price provides support, and the price adjustment space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in a wide range [78] - Eggs: The market risk control has increased, and the price continues to be weak. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range [81][82] - Oils and Fats: The palm oil price is supported by fundamentals, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by policies and market conditions. It is recommended to wait and see [83][86] - Jujubes: The driving force is insufficient, and the price fluctuates in a narrow range. The supply and demand are loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [87][89] - Apples: The consumption progress has accelerated, and the price fluctuates strongly. The inventory is decreasing, but the high price may suppress consumption. It is recommended to pay attention to the post - festival inventory [90][91] Energy and Chemicals - PX: The supply and demand are weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to operate with a rolling low - long strategy [92][93] - PTA: There is a seasonal accumulation expectation in the first quarter. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to operate with a rolling low - long strategy and a low - position positive spread [94][95] - Short - fiber: The supply and demand are expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to operate in the same way as PTA and reduce the processing margin when it is high [96] - Bottle Chips: The supply is expected to increase in February, and the demand will be seasonally weak. The processing margin is expected to be suppressed. It is recommended to operate in the same way as PTA and pay attention to reducing the processing margin [98][99] - Ethylene Glycol: The supply and demand are weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The price is under pressure. It is recommended to operate in the range of 3700 - 4100 and pay attention to the positive spread [100] - Pure Benzene: The supply and demand have improved, but the high inventory limits the driving force. The price follows the raw materials and downstream styrene. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce the EB - BZ spread when it is high [101][102] - Styrene: Affected by new export news and strong oil prices, it is strong in the short term. The supply is expected to increase in February, and the demand is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce the EB - BZ spread when it is high [103][104] - LLDPE: The basis has weakened, and the hedging merchants are the main buyers. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to stop the previous long positions and wait and see [105] - PP: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price fluctuates. It is recommended to wait and see [106] - Methanol: The trading is average, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [107] - Caustic Soda: The fundamentals have not improved, and it is adjusted weakly and stably. It is recommended to pay attention to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [108][110] - PVC: Affected by emotions, the price is strong. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak before the festival, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [111][112] - Urea: The pre - festival trading atmosphere has weakened, and new orders are slow to follow up. The supply is sufficient, and the price may rise due to emotional factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the factory's pre - festival order - receiving strategy and agricultural fertilizer - preparation demand [113][115] - Soda Ash: The atmosphere has heated up, and it has followed the rise. The supply is expected to decline in the short term, the demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [116][120] - Glass: Affected by coal prices and the expectation of cold repair of production lines, it has opened high and gone high. The supply is at a low level, the demand is weak before the festival, and the inventory is still at a high level. It is recommended to try short positions lightly [116][120] - Natural Rubber: The raw material price has risen, and the rubber price has continued to rise. The supply is shrinking, the demand is affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to hold long positions [120][123] - Synthetic Rubber: In the short term, BR follows the commodity fluctuations. The cost is supported, the demand is expected to improve in the first quarter, and the supply inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 12500 for BR2604 [123][126]
广发早知道：汇总版-20260205
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-02-05 00:46