2026年电力行业展望：延续绿色转型与市场化改革双主线发展

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the power industry, emphasizing the continuation of green transformation and market-oriented reforms in 2026 [1]. Core Insights - The power industry is expected to maintain a balance between supply and demand, with a significant increase in renewable energy installations and generation, while coal power transitions to a peak-shaving role [1][4]. - The overall credit status of the industry remains strong, with high-rated state-owned enterprises dominating the bond issuance landscape, reflecting significant financing advantages [1][19]. - The report highlights the need for improved system regulation and consumption capacity to support the accelerated green transition of the power supply structure [3][4]. Supply Capacity Analysis - The total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3,890 million kilowatts by the end of 2025, marking a 16.1% year-on-year increase, with renewable energy being the main driver of this growth [3]. - Wind and solar power installations reached a combined total of 1,840 million kilowatts, with solar power growing by 35.4% and wind power by 22.9% year-on-year [3]. - The transition of coal power to a peak-shaving role is becoming more pronounced, although the system's regulation and consumption capacity require urgent enhancement [3][4]. Demand Matching Capability Analysis - The total electricity consumption in China was 10.37 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, reflecting a 5.0% year-on-year growth, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [6]. - The demand for electricity is expected to continue growing steadily in 2026, driven by the third industry and urban residents' electricity consumption [9]. Price Change Analysis - Fuel prices have declined, but installation costs are expected to rise, leading to continued pressure on electricity prices in 2026 [10][16]. - The average on-grid electricity price is anticipated to face downward pressure due to the marketization of electricity pricing and the rising costs of renewable energy installations [10][16]. Policy Direction - The report emphasizes that the focus for 2026 will be on deepening the green transition and improving the unified market system, with policies aimed at promoting efficient consumption of renewable energy [17][18]. - The establishment of a new power system and the construction of a national unified electricity market are highlighted as key areas for policy development [17][18]. Credit Rating Situation Analysis - The bond issuance scale in the power industry reached 1,797.64 billion yuan in 2025, a significant increase of 62.24% year-on-year, with the majority of issuers being high-rated state-owned enterprises [19][20]. - The report notes that the credit ratings of power enterprises remain high, with most issuers rated AAA, reflecting the industry's overall strong credit quality [20][26]. Cycle Development Outlook - The power demand is expected to grow steadily alongside economic recovery and electrification processes, maintaining a balance between supply and demand [28]. - The report anticipates that the electricity pricing mechanism will become more flexible, with potential downward pressure on market transaction prices [28][29].