建信期货生猪日报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market for live pigs shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand before the Spring Festival, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and the spot price is mainly oscillating weakly. The futures market has sufficient production capacity, and the supply of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase. Fattened pigs held back by second - round fattening still need to be sold after the festival, which will continue to put pressure on the market. After the festival, it enters the consumption off - season, and the support for the market is insufficient. Contracts 03/05 are mainly oscillating weakly [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Futures Market: On the 4th, the main 2605 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then fluctuated upwards, closing with a positive line. The highest price was 11,800 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,580 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,735 yuan/ton, up 0.95% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,293 lots to 341,330 lots [7] - Spot Market: On the 4th, the average price of ternary live pigs nationwide was 12.12 yuan/kg, down 0.32 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] - Analysis of Supply and Demand: On the supply side, the utilization rate of second - round fattening pens is relatively high year - on - year, and there are still pigs to be slaughtered before the festival. The planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in February decreased by 17.73% month - on - month. Affected by the reduction of sales days during the holiday, the daily average increased by 21.44% month - on - month. The enthusiasm of the breeding side to slaughter increased in the first ten days, and the rhythm accelerated. The slaughter volume will be significantly released around the 23rd of the 12th lunar month. On the demand side, the spot price rebounded to a high level and the Spring Festival is approaching, so second - round fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The terminal consumer demand of residents is average, schools are on holiday one after another, group meals and other consumption may decrease, the sales of white - striped pork are poor, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have decreased in the short term, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have decreased slightly. The last wave of demand peak will be during the Spring Festival stocking period around the 23rd of the 12th lunar month in early February. On February 4th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 191,000 heads, 1,000 heads less than the previous day, an increase of 15,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 20,000 heads month - on - month [8] 3.2 行业要闻 - As of the end of January, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening in the future is 12.18 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg month - on - month and a decrease of 0.82 yuan/kg compared with 13 yuan/kg year - on - year. The cost of fattening with externally purchased piglets is affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of externally purchased piglets after fattening to 125 kg for slaughter is 12.79 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.36 yuan/kg month - on - month and a decrease of 2.1 yuan/kg compared with 14.9 yuan/kg year - on - year [9][11] 3.3 数据概览 - Profit: As of January 30th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was 46 yuan/head, an increase of 170 yuan/head month - on - month; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 34.5 yuan/head, an increase of 221 yuan/head month - on - month [14] - Utilization Rate of Fattening Pens: As of January 20th, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 37.7%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points ten - day - on - ten - day, an increase of 7.7 percentage points month - on - month, and an increase of 24 percentage points year - on - year [14] - Price of 15 - kg Piglets: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets monitored by Yongyi Consulting in January was 407.8 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 103 yuan/head, a rise of 33.8% [14] - Average Slaughter Weight: The average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide in January was 128.6 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 kg, a decline of 0.9%, and an increase of 4.9 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 3.96% [14] - Live Pig Slaughter and Pork Production in 2025: In 2025, the slaughter of live pigs was 719.73 million heads, an increase of 17.16 million heads year - on - year, a growth of 2.4%. Among them, the slaughter of live pigs in the first to fourth quarters was 194.76 million heads, 171.43 million heads, 163.73 million heads, and 189.81 million heads respectively, with year - on - year growth of 0.1%, 1.2%, 4.7%, and 4.1% respectively. The pork production was 59.38 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons year - on - year, a growth of 4.1%, and the production reached a record high. Among them, the pork production in the first to fourth quarters was 16.02 million tons, 14.18 million tons, 13.48 million tons, and 15.70 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth of 1.2%, 1.4%, 7.1%, and 5.2% respectively [14]