芳烃橡胶早报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Viewpoints PTA - Near - term TA device operates stably, polyester load continues to decline, inventory accumulates, basis is weak, and spot processing fee improves. PX domestic operation is stable, overseas load rises slightly, PXN contracts, disproportionation and isomerization benefits improve, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia remains weak. Although TA has turned to weekly inventory accumulation, the processing fee improves further due to better far - month expectations and slow actual load increase. The overall valuation is not low. The downward driving force mainly depends on the load increase of mainstream suppliers' existing devices, and there is uncertainty without new production. Currently, the safety margin for contraction is not high [1]. MEG - Near - term domestic MEG has both maintenance and restart, overall operation rises slightly, port inventory accumulates significantly at the beginning of next week, the forecast of arrivals during the week drops, basis strengthens slightly, and coal - based benefits are stable. Recently, due to price ratio, satellite device's production conversion plan is introduced. Short - term inventory accumulation continues, but the far - month inventory reduction amplitude increases, and there is a certain need for valuation repair. However, the elasticity is still limited during the production cycle, and it is expected to be range - bound [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Near - term device maintenance is concentrated, operation drops significantly to 85.3%, sales - to - production ratio weakens, inventory accumulates slightly, and spot processing fee weakens. On the demand side, the operation of the yarn - making end continues to decline, raw material inventory is depleted, finished - product inventory remains stable, and benefits improve. In the future, the seasonality of the short - fiber downstream is expected to continue to weaken, and it also enters the pre - holiday load - reduction stage. The absolute inventory pressure is not large, with low - to - medium valuation and weak driving force, and overall contradictions are limited. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber There is no specific summarized view in the report, but data on various rubber prices and related spreads are presented. Styrene and Related Products There is no specific summarized view in the report, but data on prices, production profits, and operating rates of styrene and related products are presented. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Data: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, crude oil prices, PX prices, PTA spot prices, and related processing fees and spreads changed. For example, the PTA spot daily average basis was 2605(-60). Sichuan Energy Investment's 100 - million - ton device restarted [1]. - Market Situation: Near - term TA device operation is stable, polyester load declines, inventory accumulates, basis is weak, and spot processing fee improves. PX domestic operation is stable, overseas load rises slightly, PXN contracts, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia remains weak [1]. MEG - Price and Index Data: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, prices of MEG in various forms (such as coal - based MEG, MEG port, etc.), profits, loads, and inventories changed. The basis for MEG spot was around 05(-105). Zhonghua Quanzhou's 50 - million - ton device and Zhongke Refining & Chemical's 50 - million - ton device restarted [1]. - Market Situation: Near - term domestic MEG has both maintenance and restart, overall operation rises slightly, port inventory accumulates significantly at the beginning of next week, the forecast of arrivals during the week drops, basis strengthens slightly, and coal - based benefits are stable. Recently, due to price ratio, satellite device's production conversion plan is introduced. Short - term inventory accumulation continues, but the far - month inventory reduction amplitude increases [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Data: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, prices of polyester staple fiber and related products (such as pure polyester yarn, etc.) changed. The spot price was around 6565, and the market basis was around 03 - 70 [1]. - Market Situation: Near - term device maintenance is concentrated, operation drops significantly to 85.3%, sales - to - production ratio weakens, inventory accumulates slightly, and spot processing fee weakens. On the demand side, the operation of the yarn - making end continues to decline, raw material inventory is depleted, finished - product inventory remains stable, and benefits improve [1]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Price Data: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, prices of various types of rubber (such as Shanghai whole - milk rubber, Thai mixed rubber, etc.) changed. For example, the price of Shanghai whole - milk rubber decreased from 16190 on January 29 to 16385 on February 4 [1]. - Spread Data: Data on various spreads (such as the spread between mixed rubber and RU main contract, etc.) are presented [1]. Styrene and Related Products - Price Data: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and related products (such as EPS, PS, etc.) changed. For example, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) decreased from 779 on January 29 to 769 on February 4 [3]. - Profit and Operating Rate Data: Data on production profits of styrene, PS, EPS, ABS and their operating rates are presented [3].