建信期货国债日报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental performance is weak, but the structural interest rate cut has been implemented, and the central bank's bond - buying scale is low. Market expectations for easing are not strong. The planned issuance scale of local bonds in the first quarter is high, causing concerns about supply pressure. However, the current 1.82% yield of the 10 - year treasury bond does not price in the possible easing space in the later period. There is support from allocation demand at the beginning of the year, and the central bank is actively maintaining the capital market, so the upward space of interest rates should be limited. In February, the bond market is in a situation of mixed long and short factors and may continue to fluctuate within a range. Before the Spring Festival, the central bank is expected to actively maintain the cross - festival capital market, and the supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, so the market environment is relatively warm. After the festival, the supply pressure will rise. Although the cash return will supplement the liquidity, the central bank usually conducts net capital withdrawal after the festival, which may be unfavorable to short - term bonds. The market is more likely to bet on holiday economic data and important meetings and policies in March, and long - term bonds may be more advantageous [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: The central bank announced that the net purchase scale of treasury bonds in January was 100 billion yuan, double that of January but not large, which had limited positive impact on the bond market. In the afternoon, the A - share market rose and recovered, suppressing the bond market again, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board [8] - Interest Rate Spot Bonds: The yields of major - term interest rate spot bonds in the inter - bank market changed slightly. The change of long - term active bonds was less than 1bp. As of 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.812%, up 0.1bp [9] - Funding Market: The inter - bank funding market was stable and loose. The supply pressure of local bonds this week was still high. Attention should be paid to the central bank's liquidity arrangements before the Spring Festival. The net withdrawal of reverse repurchase in the open - market today was 20.25 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined. The overnight DR in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated narrowly around 1.32%, the 7 - day funding rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.5%, the medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.6% [10] 3.2 Industry News - The central bank will conduct an 800 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase operation on February 4, with an additional 100 billion yuan for roll - over, the first additional roll - over in nearly four months. The central bank also disclosed that the net investment in treasury bond trading in the open - market in January was 100 billion yuan [13] - The Party Committee of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasized the development of strategic emerging industries and future industries, and promoted the development of strategic emerging industries, future industries and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries of central enterprises [13] - 30 provinces have determined their GDP growth targets for 2026. Many large economic provinces have set the target above 5%. Shanghai proposed a GDP growth target of about 5% in 2026 and plans to implement major industrial projects in fields such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence [13] - Fujian Province introduced a package of measures to stabilize the real - estate market, including exploring the acquisition of existing commercial housing to promote inventory reduction, providing housing purchase subsidies, and optimizing the housing - set recognition standard and housing provident fund loan policies for multi - child families [13] - The US White House said that talks with Iran later this week will still be carried out as planned. Iran hopes to move the talks from Istanbul, Turkey to Oman and hold them in a bilateral form, but has not responded yet [14] - US President Trump signed a government appropriation bill to end the partial government "shutdown" [14] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan said that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that monetary policy should remain cautious before inflation fully returns to the target to ensure the stability of the labor market [14] 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on February 4, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and position difference [6] - Money Market: The report shows data on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [28][32] - Derivatives Market: The report presents data on the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]