集运早报-20260205

Group 1: Contract Information - EC2602 contract had a closing price of 1737.8 with 0.00% change, a basis of 54.3, 97 in trading volume, 1826 in open interest, and a 57 decrease in open interest [2] - EC2604 contract had a closing price of 1247.6 with 0.78% change, a basis of 544.5, 24199 in trading volume, 32761 in open interest, and a 1468 decrease in open interest [2] - EC2606 contract had a closing price of 1534.0 with 0.02% change, a basis of 258.1, 3370 in trading volume, 14222 in open interest, and a 764 increase in open interest [2] - EC2608 contract had a closing price of 1604.6 with 0.42% change, a basis of 187.5, 396 in trading volume, and 1494 in open interest [2] - EC2610 contract had a closing price of 1135.7 with 0.63% change, a basis of 656.4, 1963 in trading volume, 8185 in open interest, and a 508 increase in open interest [2] - The spread between EC2502 - 2604 was 490.2, with a day - on - day change of - 9.7 and a week - on - week change of 22.4 [2] - The spread between EC2504 - 2606 was - 286.4, with a day - on - day change of 9.4 and a week - on - week change of 39.9 [2] Group 2: Spot and Index Information - The spot price of the European line was 1792.14 points on 2026/2/2, with a 3.61% decrease from the previous period and a 4.86% decrease in the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European line) was 1418 dollars/TEU on 2026/1/30, with an 11.10% decrease from the previous period and a 4.83% decrease in the previous period [2] Group 3: Market Analysis and Recommendations - Near - term, due to Maersk's stable February quotes, March rush - shipping expectations, April off - season expectations, and long - term contract price suppression, the 04 contract is expected to oscillate between 1100 - 1250 points. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling the 04 contract and pay attention to whether there is a significant premium on the market. Future focus should be on PA Alliance quotes and geopolitical situations [3] - In the long - term, it is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies, mainly based on the off - season and negative factors. The valuations of 06 and 08 are difficult to anchor, and they are expected to oscillate widely within a reasonable range. Cautious operation is recommended under geopolitical uncertainties [3] Group 4: European Line Spot Situation - This week, downstream is booking cabins for early February (week 6 - 7). Currently, the overall cargo - loading situation of ships is good, but the pressure to attract cargo has increased, and shipping companies need to attract cargo for ships departing during the Spring Festival holiday [4] - The price center in week 7 was 2140 dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. From week 8 - 9, MSK's cabin opening price was 1950 dollars (flat compared to the previous period), and other shipping companies' quotes also remained the same for the time being [4] Group 5: News - On 2/5, it was reported that the Iran - US nuclear negotiations would resume. The negotiations are scheduled to be held in Muscat, Oman at around 10 am local time on Friday (2 pm Beijing time on the 6th). Previously, there were reports that the negotiations were cancelled due to differences over whether the negotiation content should focus only on the nuclear issue. Affected by the fluctuating news, oil prices gave back half of their previous gains [5]