《黑色》日报-20260205

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are stabilizing. The night trading prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils closed at 3,105 yuan and 3,271 yuan respectively. Supply and demand are both weak, with seasonal inventory accumulation. The off-season characteristics are obvious. Near the Spring Festival, the industry's supply and demand are weak, and the black market valuation is not high, close to the lower edge of the oscillation range, with limited further downward space. The price of coking coal strengthened due to the expected reduction in Indonesian coal production, and it is expected that the supply side of coking coal will affect the black market fluctuations in the near future. Steel prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and the upward elasticity depends on the supply-side policies of coking coal and market sentiment. Consider holding a long position in the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar. Short-term long positions in hot-rolled coils can be attempted at the 3,250 level [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract was weak, and the night trading continued to show weakness. The raw material side showed continuous differentiation. Affected by the Indonesian coal export restrictions, the price of coking coal soared, and the coking coal ratio strengthened. The supply side of iron ore had a slight increase in global shipments this period, and the shipment center decreased marginally but was still at a relatively high level compared to the historical average. On the demand side, SMM predicted that the impact of blast furnace maintenance would decline this week, and the molten iron output might increase slightly. After the festival, the resumption of production is expected to accelerate. Currently, the supply and demand of finished products are still healthy, and the inventories of plates and cold-rolled products continue to decline. The terminal demand for steel exports has decreased, but it still has some resilience. Pay attention to the demand recovery after the festival. In terms of inventory, port inventories continued to accumulate, and the high absolute inventory had a strong suppression on iron ore prices; while steel mill inventories increased significantly, and the port clearance volume increased month-on-month, and the replenishment was gradually realized. In the future, the demand for iron ore before the festival is weak, and the high inventory and high off-season supply continue to put pressure on prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly in the short term. Short positions can be attempted, but beware of macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke - The coke futures oscillated upward. On the spot side, on January 28, steel mills officially accepted the coke price increase and started implementing it on the 30th. The port price remained stable, and the coke market rebounded slightly. On the supply side, the coke price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal, and the coking profit is under pressure, with a slight decline in production. On the demand side, steel mills resumed production slightly after New Year's Day, the molten iron output was low, and the steel price rebounded from a low level. In terms of inventory, both coking plants and steel mills accumulated inventory, and the port inventory decreased. The overall inventory increased slightly at a medium level. The short-term supply and demand of coke are in a slightly tight balance. In terms of strategy, the implementation of the price increase drives the market to rebound, but the implementation time of the price increase by mainstream coking enterprises lags, which suppresses the expectation of future price increases. There is still an expectation of loosening after the festival. The rebound of the coking coal futures price provides cost support. The single-sided view is oscillating, with a reference range of 1,600 - 1,800. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures oscillated upward. On the spot side, the auction price of Shanxi spot showed a downward trend, with the price of low-sulfur main coking coal in some coal mines decreasing. The Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated with the futures. Recently, the auction failure rate has decreased, and the winter storage replenishment is approaching the end. The thermal coal market has started to stabilize recently. On the supply side, after the New Year, the daily output of coal mines continued to recover, entering the resumption of production stage, with good shipments and accelerated inventory reduction. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory is at a historical high, and the Mongolian coal quotation has rebounded and then declined. After New Year's Day, the customs clearance has quickly recovered to a relatively high level. On the demand side, the molten iron output of steel mills remained low, the coking profit declined, and the production declined. The downstream replenishment demand before the Spring Festival has limited growth. In terms of inventory, with the progress of downstream replenishment, coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports have all accumulated inventory, while coal mines, coal washing plants, and ports have reduced inventory. The overall inventory has increased slightly at a medium level. In terms of strategy, the short-term implementation of the coke price increase drives the market to rebound. India classifies coking coal as a strategic resource, and the Indonesian government's reduction of the annual coal production plan has led to coal mine production cuts, and overseas market disturbances have driven the rebound of coking coal. However, the domestic supply and demand are generally balanced. The single-sided view is oscillating, with a reference range of 1,050 - 1,250. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Silicon Iron - The main silicon iron contract oscillated, and the contract was shifted to 05. The Indonesian coal export restrictions led to an expected increase in the cost of silicon iron. On the spot side, the price in the Ningxia production area weakened slightly yesterday, and the rest remained stable. Near the holiday, the transaction was cold. On the supply side, the silicon iron output increased slightly month-on-month, basically the same as the previous period, with limited changes, and the absolute value was still at a historically low level in the same period. The output in most production areas was basically the same as last week, and the output in Ningxia increased slightly. It is expected that the silicon iron output will remain stable before the festival. In terms of steelmaking demand, the molten iron output is expected to remain stable before the festival, and the contradiction on the finished product side is relatively limited. The slow resumption of molten iron production can effectively suppress the increase in the inventory contradiction of finished products. The subsequent resumption of molten iron production is limited by the off-season demand, but negative feedback is difficult to see. In terms of magnesium metal demand, the daily output is still at a relatively high level, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened compared with the previous period, and the price has declined; the silicon iron export is also affected by many factors, and the overall steel demand has weakened marginally. In terms of cost, the price of semi-coke remained stable, and the settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai increased slightly. Pay attention to the changes in the settlement electricity prices in other production areas. The cost side still has support. In the future, the short-term supply and demand contradiction of silicon iron is limited, the fundamentals are relatively healthy, and the cost side has support. Pay attention to macro sentiment disturbances. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5,500 - 5,800 [7]. Manganese Silicon - The main manganese silicon contract oscillated, and the position was reduced before the festival. On the spot side, the downstream steel mills have basically completed the replenishment, and at the same time, the transportation has gradually stagnated, and the spot transaction is cold. Fundamentally, the manganese silicon supply has declined slightly, and the recent output has basically remained stable, with the manufacturer's operating rate increasing. The absolute output is at a historically low level. Affected by the new production capacity in Inner Mongolia, the output has steadily increased; the output in Ningxia has continued to decline; the southern region is affected by the power grid policy adjustment, and there is an expected significant increase in electricity prices in the future. Most manufacturers maintain production suspension, and the output in Guangxi continues to shrink. It is expected that the share of the southern manganese silicon production area will continue to shrink, and the manganese silicon output will remain stable before the festival. In terms of steelmaking demand, the molten iron output is expected to remain stable before the festival, and the contradiction on the finished product side is relatively limited. The slow resumption of molten iron production can effectively suppress the increase in the inventory contradiction of finished products. The subsequent resumption of molten iron production is limited by the off-season demand, but negative feedback is difficult to see. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory remains high, and the pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, but the order level is relatively low, and the total inventory is moderately high. In terms of cost, the alloy manufacturers' manganese ore procurement is basically over, and the inventory replenishment is weak. The first-round quotation of the outer disk continues to rise, and the maintenance of some mines in Africa has a short-term impact on the supply. The cost support of manganese ore still exists. Affected by the Indonesian coal production restrictions, the price of coking coal soared, driving up the price of coke. Recently, this factor may have an impact on the manganese silicon price, but the sustainability is expected to be limited. Overall, manganese silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is still an expectation of resumption of production after the festival, and the fundamentals lack driving force. In the short term, pay attention to macro sentiment disturbances. It is expected that the manganese silicon price will oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5,600 - 6,000 [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3,230 yuan/ton, 3,160 yuan/ton, and 3,270 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar increased by 12 yuan, 15 yuan, and 11 yuan respectively. - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3,260 yuan/ton, 3,160 yuan/ton, and 3,270 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of hot-rolled coils increased by 13 yuan, 20 yuan, and 23 yuan respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price increased by 10 yuan to 2,930 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3,730 yuan/ton. - The cost of electric furnace rebar in Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan to 3,236 yuan/ton, and the cost of converter rebar decreased by 16 yuan to 3,170 yuan/ton. - The profit of rebar in East China decreased by 6 yuan to -30 yuan/ton, the profit of rebar in North China decreased by 16 yuan to -100 yuan/ton, and the profit of rebar in South China decreased by 6 yuan to 160 yuan/ton. - The profit of hot-rolled coils in East China decreased by 6 yuan to 0 yuan/ton, the profit of hot-rolled coils in North China decreased by 6 yuan to -100 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot-rolled coils in South China increased by 4 yuan to 10 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 0.1 to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.0%. - The output of the five major steel products increased by 3.6 tons to 823.2 tons, an increase of 0.4%. - The rebar output increased by 0.3 tons to 199.8 tons, an increase of 0.1%. Among them, the electric furnace output decreased by 1.1 tons to 32.2 tons, a decrease of 3.2%, and the converter output increased by 1.4 tons to 167.6 tons, an increase of 0.8%. - The hot-rolled coil output increased by 3.8 tons to 309.2 tons, an increase of 1.2% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 21.4 tons to 1,278.5 tons, an increase of 1.7%. - The rebar inventory increased by 23.4 tons to 475.5 tons, an increase of 5.2%. - The hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.2 tons to 355.6 tons, a decrease of 0.6% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 to 3.6 tons, a decrease of 12.6%. - The demand for the five major steel products decreased by 7.8 tons to 801.7 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. - The demand for rebar decreased by 9.1 tons to 176.4 tons, a decrease of 4.9%. - The demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 1.5 tons to 311.4 tons, an increase of 0.5% [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines increased by 4.4 yuan, 4.4 yuan, 4.3 yuan, and 4.3 yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.5%. - The 05 contract basis of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines increased by 0.4 yuan, 0.4 yuan, 0.3 yuan, and 0.3 yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.5%, 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.4%. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 17.0, a decrease of 2.9%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged at 11.0 [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 45.3 tons to 2,484.7 tons, a decrease of 1.8%. - The global shipment volume increased by 116.3 tons to 3,094.6 tons, an increase of 3.9%. - The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11,964.7 tons, an increase of 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. - The 45 - port daily average clearance volume increased by 21.6 tons to 332.3 tons, an increase of 6.9%. - The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 162.1 tons to 6,072.2 tons, a decrease of 2.6%. - The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 169.4 tons to 6,817.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 255.7 tons to 17,022.26 tons, an increase of 1.5%. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 579.8 tons to 9,968.6 tons, an increase of 6.2%. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 4.0 days to 27.0 days, an increase of 17.4% [3]. Coke Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1,671 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 11 yuan to 1,745 yuan/ton. - The 05 contract of coke increased by 55 yuan to 1,770 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract increased by 48 yuan to 1,832 yuan/ton. - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1,260 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) increased by 29 yuan to 1,209 yuan/ton. - The 05 contract of coking coal increased by 42 yuan to 1,209 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract increased by 36 yuan to 1,282 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons to 62.8 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. - The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 47.0 tons, an increase of 0.2% [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 21.5 tons to 960.6 tons, an increase of 2.3%. - The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.9 tons to 84.4 tons, an increase of 3.6%. - The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 16.6 tons to 678.2 tons, an increase of 2.5%. - The port inventory increased by 2.0 tons to 198.1 tons, an increase of 1.0% [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The