LPG早报-20260205

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On February 4, the LPG night - market fluctuated lower. The 03 - 04 spread was - 290 (- 25), and the 03 basis was - 110 (calculated using Shanghai civilian price of 4100). The external market FEI rose 5 dollars to 533, and CP increased 3 dollars to 533, with the number of warehouse receipts unchanged [1]. - This week, the futures price fluctuated and rose with crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - sentiment disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (- 32), the 03 - 04 spread was - 294 (- 16), - 203 (- 8). The cheapest deliverable was East China civilian gas at 4418 (+ 46). There were 5867 warehouse receipts (- 31), with 31 less from Haiyu Petrochemical. The February CP official price was in line with expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+ 20/+ 20). FEI spread fluctuated, while CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly, with PG - FEI at 37.5 (- 17.8) and PG - CP at 59 (- 8). Freight rates rose significantly due to North American cold snaps delaying loading operations and supply - demand tightness, along with high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense Iranian situation. The East China propane arrival premium was 91 (+ 6); AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 19.25 (- 16.75), - 15 (- 35), 46.89 (- 15.6). The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 29 (- 11). China's PDH propylene production profit strengthened significantly, with the latest at - 237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). PDH operating rate was 60.72% (- 1.53pct). Geopolitical risks remain, and the rising external price supports the domestic LPG futures sentiment. However, domestic downstream profits are poor, and there is pre - holiday inventory reduction, so the spot price support is weak. The domestic basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral. Follow - up attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term, with attention needed on the February cold snap in the US and the Iranian situation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Day - to - day Data - From January 29 to February 4, prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - post carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and主力基差 had different changes. For example, on February 4 compared to the previous day, South China LPG decreased by 15, East China LPG remained unchanged, Shandong LPG decreased by 10, propane CFR South China increased by 11, etc [1]. Day - to - day View - On February 4, the LPG night - market fluctuated lower. The 03 - 04 spread was - 290 (- 25), and the 03 basis was - 110 (calculated using Shanghai civilian price of 4100). The external market FEI rose 5 dollars to 533, and CP increased 3 dollars to 533, with the number of warehouse receipts unchanged [1]. Weekly View - This week, the futures price fluctuated and rose with crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - sentiment disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (- 32), the 03 - 04 spread was - 294 (- 16), - 203 (- 8). The cheapest deliverable was East China civilian gas at 4418 (+ 46). There were 5867 warehouse receipts (- 31), with 31 less from Haiyu Petrochemical. The February CP official price was in line with expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+ 20/+ 20). FEI spread fluctuated, while CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly, with PG - FEI at 37.5 (- 17.8) and PG - CP at 59 (- 8). Freight rates rose significantly due to North American cold snaps delaying loading operations and supply - demand tightness, along with high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense Iranian situation. The East China propane arrival premium was 91 (+ 6); AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 19.25 (- 16.75), - 15 (- 35), 46.89 (- 15.6). The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 29 (- 11). China's PDH propylene production profit strengthened significantly, with the latest at - 237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). PDH operating rate was 60.72% (- 1.53pct). Geopolitical risks remain, and the rising external price supports the domestic LPG futures sentiment. However, domestic downstream profits are poor, and there is pre - holiday inventory reduction, so the spot price support is weak. The domestic basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral. Follow - up attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term, with attention needed on the February cold snap in the US and the Iranian situation [1].