聚酯产业链日报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the cost - side risks are released, the chemical sector has recovered at low levels. However, the overall supply - demand outlook for PX and PTA in the first quarter is weak, while the second - quarter supply - demand is expected to be tight, providing support for low prices. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. Short - fiber supply and demand are seasonally weak in February, and bottle - chip supply is expected to increase while demand weakens seasonally [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 7095 yuan/ton on February 4, down 75 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 1.1%. Its cash - flow decreased by 128 yuan to - 45.2%. FDY150/96 price was 7255 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan, and its cash - flow increased 552.0%. DTY150/48 price was 8155 yuan/ton, up 2.4%, and its cash - flow decreased by 82 yuan to - 23.5%. Polyester chip price was 5860 yuan/ton, up 1.6%, and its cash - flow decreased by 34.4%. Polyester bottle - chip price was 6256 yuan/ton, up 1.1%. The 1.4D direct - spun short - fiber price was 6560 yuan/ton, up 0.9% [2] 3.2 Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (April) was 65.14 dollars/barrel, up 1.93 dollars, a 3.1% increase. WTI crude oil (March) was 63.21 dollars/barrel, down 0.5%. CFR Japan naphtha was 598 dollars/ton, up 14 dollars, a 2.4% increase. CFR China MX was 740 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars. CFR China PX was 902 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars. PX spot price (in RMB) was 7309 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan, a 0.4% increase [2] 3.3 PX - related Prices and Spreads - PX03 - PX05 spread was - 126 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars. PX - crude oil spread decreased by 18 dollars to - 2.6%. PX - naphtha spread decreased by 3 dollars to 77 dollars/ton. PX - MX spread was 162 dollars/ton, down 4.1% [2] 3.4 PTA - related Prices and Spreads - PTA East China spot price was 5140 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan, a 1.2% increase. TA futures 2605 was 5150 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. PTA spot processing fee was 10.6%, up 39 yuan. PTA disk processing fee (05) was 439 yuan, up 2.1% [2] 3.5 MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Forecast - MEG port inventory was 89.7 million tons on February 4, up 3.9 million tons, a 4.5% increase. MEG arrival forecast was 14.7 million tons, down 2.4 million tons [2] 3.6 Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate was 81.0%, up 0.6%. Chinese PX operating rate was 89.2%, up 0.3%. PTA operating rate was 76.6%, unchanged. MEG comprehensive operating rate was 81.8%, up 3.0%. Polyester comprehensive operating rate was 86.2%, up 2.0%. Direct - spun filament operating rate was 84.6%, down 1.1%. Polyester bottle - chip operating rate was 66.1%, down 0.3%. Direct - spun short - fiber operating rate was 85.3%, down 12.9%. Pure - polyester yarn operating rate was 56.0%, down 3.0% [2] 3.7 MEG - related Prices and Spreads - MEG East China spot price was 3670 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. EG futures 2605 was 3767 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. EG05 - EG09 spread was - 111 dollars/ton, up 4.7%. Naphtha - based MEG cash - flow increased 5.0%. Ethylene - based MEG cash - flow increased by 4 dollars. MEG import profit increased by 31.8% [2] 3.8 Views on Each Product - PX: The supply - demand outlook in the first quarter is weak, but the second - quarter supply - demand is expected to be tight, supporting low prices. PX05 is expected to fluctuate between 7100 - 7600 in the short term, with a strategy of low - buying on a rolling basis [2] - PTA: The first - quarter supply - demand is weak, with expected large inventory accumulation, but the second - quarter supply - demand is expected to be tight, supporting low prices. TA05 is expected to fluctuate between 5100 - 5400 in the short term, with a strategy of low - buying on a rolling basis and a low - level positive spread for TA5 - 9 [2] - Ethylene Glycol: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. EG2605 is expected to fluctuate between 3700 - 4100. There is an opportunity for a positive spread for EG5 - 9 at low levels, and the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 can be sold at high prices [2] - Short - fiber: Supply and demand are seasonally weak in February. The price mainly fluctuates with raw materials. The short - fiber disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1000, with a strategy of narrowing the spread at high prices [2] - Bottle - chip: Supply is expected to increase in February, while demand weakens seasonally. The bottle - chip factory is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation, suppressing the processing fee. The absolute price follows the cost. The PR main - contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton, with an opportunity to narrow the spread at high prices and sell the put option PR2604 - P - 5900 at high prices [2]