原油成品油早报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran continued. Trump received a briefing on military strike plans against Iran but has not made a final decision on whether to authorize the strike. Israel is highly vigilant about the possibility of US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a reconciliation tendency. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may rise due to geopolitical risks. Fundamentally, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking was volatile, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil Price Data - From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of DUBAI increased by 1.99, OMAN increased by 2.34, and the domestic gasoline price increased by 20.00. The price of Singapore 380CST decreased by 0.86, the main contract of SHFE FU increased by 96, and the main contract of SHFE BU increased by 52. The price of HH natural gas decreased by 0.290, and BFO increased by 2.9 [3]. 3.2 Daily News - An Iranian senior source said that the US's leaking of the cancellation of the negotiation indicates a lack of sincerity. Iran will not accept negotiations on any issues other than the nuclear issue. The US rejected Iran's request to change the negotiation location and form. However, the Iranian foreign minister announced that the nuclear negotiation with the US will resume in Muscat, Oman. The repeated news has caused oil prices to give back half of their previous gains. Multiple Arab and Muslim countries pressured the US government not to cancel the negotiation [3]. 3.3 Inventory - For the week ending February 21, EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma were 128.2 barrels (previous value: 147.2 barrels), EIA crude oil inventories were -233.2 barrels (expected: 260.5 barrels, previous value: 463.3 barrels), EIA gasoline inventories were 36.9 barrels (expected: -84.9 barrels, previous value: -15.1 barrels), EIA refined oil inventories were 390.8 barrels (expected: -148.8 barrels, previous value: -205.1 barrels), EIA refinery utilization rate was 86.5% (expected: 84.8%, previous value: 84.9%), and EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 0 barrels (previous value: 0 barrels) [3].