建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The coal export policy in Indonesia has been affecting the market. Although coking coal only accounts for 1.3% of China's imported coal from Indonesia in 2025, the policy change will impact the coking coal market through the thermal coal market. With the improvement of the supply - demand relationship, the coal - coke demand is expected to further recover from February to April, and a tortuous rebound in the market is worth looking forward to [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On February 4, the main contract 2605 of coke futures strengthened significantly, while the main contract 2605 of coking coal futures rose and then fell. Both contracts recovered all or most of the declines since January 13. The KDJ indicators of the 2605 contracts of coke and coking coal showed a divergent upward trend on the daily line. The MACD indicator of the coke 2605 contract had a golden cross the previous day with significantly enlarged red bars, and the MACD indicator of the coking coal 2605 contract also had a golden cross [5][8]. - The prices, trading volumes, and positions of the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures on February 4 are as follows: the closing price of the J2605 contract was 1770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.85%, a trading volume of 26,575 lots, and a position increase of 3,883 lots; the closing price of the JM2605 contract was 1209 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.60%, a trading volume of 1,608,640 lots, and a position increase of 84,246 lots [5]. - The long - short positions and their changes of the top 20 in the black - series futures on February 4 are presented in Table 2. For example, in the J2605 contract, the long - position of the top 20 increased by 1,678 lots, and the short - position increased by 2,280 lots, with a net short - position of 602 lots and a deviation of - 2.11% [6]. - The spot market prices and changes of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke and low - sulfur primary coking coal on February 4 are shown in Table 3. The flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, with no change. The low - sulfur primary coking coal prices in some areas had a decline of 30 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Market Outlook - News: According to foreign media, on February 3, Indonesian miners suspended spot coal exports due to the government's significant production cut plan. The production quota issued to major miners last month was 40% - 70% lower than the 2025 level, which was part of the plan to boost coal prices. The main industry associations in Indonesia opposed this move, warning of potential layoffs and mine closures [10]. - Fundamentals: Recently, independent coking enterprises have been in continuous losses for 6 weeks, but the loss margin narrowed last week. Their coke production increased in the first 2 weeks of the year and then decreased for 3 consecutive weeks, giving back most of the increase. Port coke inventories have been rising from a low level for 6 consecutive weeks, recovering most of the decline since mid - November last year. Steel mill coke inventories have been rising for 6 consecutive weeks, reaching a new high since late March last year. Coking enterprise coke inventories have been rising from a low level for 2 consecutive weeks. Since January 12, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has rebounded again but has not reached the high level from December 20 - 25 last year. Recently, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimao Port has basically remained in the range of 18.9 - 21.9 tons (except for less than 13 tons on January 31). The coking coal inventories of 230 independent coking plants have been rising significantly for 6 consecutive weeks, reaching a new high since February 2024, while the coking coal inventories of steel enterprises and ports have been relatively stable [10]. 3.3 Industry News - On February 4, coal stocks soared. Stocks such as Yankuang Energy, China Coal Energy, and others hit the daily limit, and the Coal ETF once rose by more than 7%, driving the dividend index up by more than 2%. This might be related to the news that Indonesian miners suspended spot coal exports [12]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association's monthly report on steel product imports and exports, in December 2025, the export volume of major steel products in China increased to varying degrees compared with the previous month, and the increase was significant. The export volume of steel to major regions increased month - on - month, and only the export volume to Vietnam decreased month - on - month [12]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in late January, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 717 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8 tons or 1.1%, a decrease of 4 tons or 0.6% compared with the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 17 tons or 2.3% compared with the same period last year [12]. - In January 2026, the initial shipment volume of Hongnao Railway exceeded 1.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12% and a month - on - month increase of about 53%. The initial shipment volume of external customers was about 430,000 tons, accounting for about 28% [13]. - On February 4, Ruimaotong announced that Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd., the other shareholder of its subsidiary Shaanxi Shaanmei Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd., planned to transfer its 5.6667% equity in Shaanmei Supply Chain to Shaanxi International Economic and Trade Group Co., Ltd. Ruimaotong agreed to the transfer and waived the pre - emptive right to this part of the equity [13]. - According to the WeChat account of Haodao Shandong Steel, recently, the National Mine Safety Supervision Bureau approved the "Safety Facility Design of the Mining Project of Pengji Iron Mine of Shandong Pengji Mining Co., Ltd.", which laid a solid foundation for the project to accelerate progress and start production as soon as possible [13]. - On the evening of February 1, Yankuang Energy announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Yankuang Energy Co., Ltd., publicly listed the 100% equity of Inner Mongolia Xintai Coal Co., Ltd. for transfer at the Shandong Property Rights Exchange Center [13]. - The "2025 Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" released by the Economic and Technological Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation on February 3 predicted that in 2026, China's natural gas consumption growth rate will rebound. It is predicted that in 2026, China's natural gas consumption will be about 450 - 455 billion cubic meters, with a growth rate increase of 1.1 - 2.2 percentage points compared with the previous year; in 2030, China's natural gas consumption will be about 550 billion cubic meters, with an average annual growth rate of about 5.0% during the 14th Five - Year Plan period [13]. - According to foreign media, on February 3, Indonesian miners suspended spot coal exports due to the government's significant production cut plan. The production quota issued to major miners last month was 40% - 70% lower than the 2025 level, which was part of the plan to boost coal prices. The main industry associations in Indonesia opposed this move, warning of potential layoffs and mine closures [13]. - According to the latest data from the Indonesian Bureau of Statistics, in December 2025, Indonesia's coke export volume was 1.0433 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.89% and a month - on - month increase of 72.55%; the coke export value was 204 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 12.39% and a month - on - month increase of 72.46% [13]. - According to foreign media, although the South Sumatra provincial government had previously completely banned coal - transporting trucks from using public roads, it recently issued a temporary permit to Servo Lintas Raya Company, allowing its vehicles to transport coal on the Lahat line in Muara Enim County for the next month [13]. - On February 3, Maersk announced that shipping group Hapag - Lloyd and Maersk would adjust the shipping route of a shared service, and the ships would once again pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Since the end of 2023, there have been multiple attacks in the Red Sea area. After that, shipping companies diverted their ships around Africa. Now, major shipping companies are considering returning to this key trade route connecting Asia and Europe. Maersk stated that the passage through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal would be supported by naval security [13]. 3.4 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the spot summary price of primary coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national average daily hot metal production, the coke inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of sample mines, the inventories of clean coal and raw coal in sample mines, the coking coal inventories of ports, coking plants, and steel mills, and the basis between Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the May contract, as well as the basis between Linfen's low - sulfur primary coking coal and the May contract [16][18][19][27][28][29]. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][21][22][23][24][25][31][33][34][35][36][37].