大越期货沪铜早报-20260205

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a mixed situation. The supply side has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being loosened. The January manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The copper price is at a high level with fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances, and investors should control their positions [2]. - The global policy is loose and the mine end is in a tight state, while the risk comes from natural disasters [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, and relaxed scrap - copper policy. The January manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, showing a decline in manufacturing prosperity; considered bullish [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 104915, and the basis is - 245, at a discount to futures; considered neutral [2]. - Inventory: On February 4, copper inventory increased by 2525 to 178650 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 7067 tons to 233004 tons compared to last week; considered neutral [2]. - Market Chart: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising; considered bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing; considered bullish [2]. - Expectation: Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has fermented. The copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: Geopolitical disturbances between Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, potential Fed rate cuts, slow mine - end production increase, and production cuts at Freeport's Indonesian mine [4]. - Likely Negative Factors: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and a pessimistic global economy where high copper prices may suppress downstream consumption [4]. Inventory - Exchange Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 7067 tons to 233004 tons compared to last week [2]. - Bonded - Area Inventory: The bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee is declining [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance shows different situations from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, the production is 1206 tons, the import is 373 tons, the export is 46 tons, the apparent consumption is 1534 tons, the actual consumption is 1523 tons, and there is a surplus of 11 tons [21].