大越期货玻璃早报-20260205

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass industry has a weak fundamental situation. With low supply, dismal downstream deep - processing factory orders, and rising glass factory inventories, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level, volatile and weak manner in the short term [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract rose from 1072 yuan/ton to 1109 yuan/ton, a 3.45% increase. The spot price of Shahe safety large - board glass remained at 940 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 132 yuan/ton to - 169 yuan/ton, a 28.03% change [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Glass production profit has been slightly repaired, but cold - repair is less than expected, and supply is at a low level [2]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 213, with an operating rate of 71.86%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 151,000 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [19][21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [25][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 52.564 million weight boxes, a 1.23% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [40]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [41].