原木期货日报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market is firm with rising prices due to increased pre - holiday demand for construction site stocking, more factory orders, and active hedging by futures - cash traders, along with strong reluctance of traders to sell. The 03 contract has a valuation repair due to low inventory and expected decrease in later shipments. However, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the trading activity in the spot market is expected to decline gradually, and the weak demand remains unchanged. So, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude towards the current price [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On February 4, 2026, the price of log 2603 was 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 6.5 yuan from the previous day with a 0.81% increase; log 2605 was 802.0 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; log 2607 was 807.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.5 yuan with a 0.06% increase. The basis of the main contract was - 57.5, down 6.5 from the previous day. Most spot prices at ports remained unchanged, while the CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine increased by 2.73% to 113 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was unchanged at 125 euros/JAS cubic meter [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On February 5, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.940 yuan, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. The import theoretical cost calculated with a 15% over - length was 771.89 yuan, up 20.66 yuan from the previous day with a 3% increase [2] Supply: Monthly - In December 2025, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 109.5 million cubic meters, down 46.32% from November. The number of ships at the port was 29, down 47.27% from November [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 30, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 242 million cubic meters, down 7 million cubic meters from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 177.10 million cubic meters, down 6.20%; in Jiangsu, it was 40.76 million cubic meters, up 23.63% [2][3] Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume - As of January 30, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 6.17 million cubic meters, up 0.01 million cubic meters from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.89 million cubic meters, up 8%; in Jiangsu, it was 1.59 million cubic meters, down 18% [3]