大越期货油脂早报-20260205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are in a state of oscillatory consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Daily Views on Different Oils - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report is slightly bearish, but subsequent supply pressure may ease as it enters the production - reduction season. The current export data for Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase. - Basis: The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, with a basis of 282. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory was 1020000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. - Main positions: The long positions of the main contract have increased. - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2] - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. - Basis: The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, with a basis of - 64. - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory was 736000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. - Main positions: The long positions of the main contract have increased. - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [3] - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report is slightly bearish, and supply pressure will ease in the production - reduction season. - Basis: The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, with a basis of 837. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory was 250000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. - Main positions: The short positions of the main contract have decreased. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9000 - 9400 [4] 3.2 Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is also a palm oil tremor season. - Bearish Factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically. The domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high. - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] 3.3 Supply and Demand Data (Graphs) - Supply: There are graphs showing data on import soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil - mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats from 2015 - 2025 [6][7][9][11][17][19][21][23] - Demand: There are graphs showing data on soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption from 2015 - 2025 [13][15]