大越期货白糖早报-20260205

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season is expected to shrink compared to the 25/26 season, but there is still an overall surplus. The market is affected by multiple factors, with a mix of positive and negative influences. - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the sugar futures market is expected to show a range - bound trend, with the short - term 05 contract predicted to fluctuate between 5200 - 5300 [4][5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Covrig Analytics estimates the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 140,000 tons, down from 470,000 tons in the 25/26 season; Green Pool predicts a 156,000 - ton surplus in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season. As of the end of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season was 4.7018 million tons, cumulative sales were 1.57 million tons, and the sales rate was 33.39%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons; and imported 69,700 tons of syrup and pre - mixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5350, with a basis of 140 (for the 05 contract), indicating a premium over futures [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of October 2025, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season was 791,400 tons [5]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The net position of the main contract shows an increase in short positions, with a bearish trend [5]. - Expectations: With the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, the market is expected to trade in a range. The short - term 05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5200 - 5300 [5][8]. - Positive Factors: The sugar production in Brazil in the 26/27 season may decline, the syrup tariff has increased, and American cola has changed its formula to use sucrose [6]. - Negative Factors: Global sugar production has increased, leading to a surplus in the new season. The international sugar price has dropped to around 14.5 cents per pound, opening the import profit window and increasing import pressure [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons. For example, ISO predicts a 163,000 - ton surplus in the 25/26 season; StoneX predicts a 2.9 - million - ton surplus; Czarnikow raises its surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 740,000 tons; Green Pool predicts a 156,000 - ton surplus in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season; USDA predicts a 1.1397 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season, with production increasing by 4.7% year - on - year and consumption increasing by 1.4% [4][8]. - In China, the sugar - cane and sugar - beet planting areas, yields, and sugar production in the 2024/25, 2023/24, and 2025/26 seasons are presented. The expected sugar production in the 2025/26 season is 11.7 million tons, with imports of 5 million tons and consumption of 15.7 million tons [32]. - The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and tax payment (50% tariff) and the corresponding profit from December 2025 to January 2026 are provided. For example, on December 9, 2025, the cost was 5132 yuan/ton with a profit of 618 yuan/ton [36]. 3.5 Position Data No content provided in the report.