大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20260205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Jiaomei: With the approaching Spring Festival, the supply of coking coal has decreased, and coal mines are reluctant to lower prices. However, downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the price fluctuation is small. The market is in a wait - and - see state. The current basis indicates a premium of the spot price over the futures price. The total inventory has decreased compared to last week. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. The main position has changed from net short to net long. Considering that some steel mills have slightly limited production and some coking enterprises have completed winter storage, the demand for coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short term [2][3]. - Jiaotan: The coking coal auction market has improved, and most coking enterprises are in normal production. But downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, and coking enterprises' inventory pressure is increasing. The current basis indicates a discount of the spot price to the futures price. The total inventory has decreased compared to last week. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. The main position has increased net long positions. As some steel mills have completed inventory replenishment and the steel market is unlikely to improve before the Spring Festival, the price of coke is expected to remain stable in the short term [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Jiaomei - Fundamentals: As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of coking coal in the main production areas has decreased, and coal mines are reluctant to lower prices. However, downstream procurement sentiment is poor, and the price adjustment is small, with a wait - and - see market attitude [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1230, and the basis is 21, indicating that the spot price has a premium over the futures price [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory of steel mills, ports, and independent coking enterprises is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons compared to last week. Among them, the port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared to last week; the independent coking enterprise inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons compared to last week; the steel mill inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week [2][19][23][28]. - Market: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. The main position has changed from net short to net long [2][3]. - Expectation: Due to some steel mills' limited production and some coking enterprises' completed winter storage, the demand for coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - Factors: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors include the slowdown of raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Jiaotan - Fundamentals: The coking coal auction market has improved, and most coking enterprises are in normal production. But downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, coking enterprises' inventory pressure is increasing, and the supply is slightly loose [6]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1630, and the basis is - 140, indicating that the spot price has a discount to the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory of steel mills, ports, and independent coking enterprises is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared to last week. Among them, the port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared to last week; the independent coking enterprise inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons compared to last week; the steel mill inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [6][19][23][28]. - Market: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. The main position has increased net long positions [6][7]. - Expectation: As some steel mills have completed inventory replenishment and the steel market is unlikely to improve before the Spring Festival, the price of coke is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. - Factors: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate; negative factors include squeezed steel mill profit margins and partially over - drawn inventory replenishment demand [9]. Other Data - Washing Plant: No detailed data analysis provided for washing plant raw coal inventory, refined coal inventory, and refined coal production. - Coke Oven: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45]. - Production: No detailed analysis provided for daily and monthly coke production, blast furnace operating rate, and hot metal production. Price - Imported Coking Coal: The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on February 4, 2026, including the prices and price changes of different varieties and brands at different ports [10].