大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support, while industrial inventories are neutral. However, downstream demand is weak, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance [4][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Affected by geopolitical factors, the crude oil trend is strong, driving polyolefins to fluctuate. Near the Spring Festival, the demand from downstream industries such as agricultural film and packaging film is weak. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6750 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 168, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.4%, which is bearish [4] - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 40.3 tons (+5.4), neutral [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract disk fluctuates. With cost support and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected to fluctuate today [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support and strong crude oil [6] - Negative Factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year [6] - Main Logic: Supply exceeds demand, and the marginal change in supply - demand is sensitive [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing PMI is in the contraction range, OPEC+ suspends production increase, and crude oil drives polyolefins. PDH device maintenance is relatively frequent. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for plastic weaving and pipes is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6690 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 111, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.6%, which is bearish [7] - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 41.6 tons (+1.5), which is relatively high [7] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position decreases, which is bearish [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract disk fluctuates. With cost support, neutral industrial inventory, and increased PDH device maintenance, it is expected to fluctuate today [7] - Likely Factors: Cost support and strong crude oil [8] - Negative Factors: Off - season for downstream demand [8] - Main Logic: Supply exceeds demand, and the marginal change in supply - demand is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - LLDPE: The spot delivery price is 6750 (unchanged), the 05 - contract futures price is 6918 (+53), and the basis is - 168 (-53). The PE comprehensive factory inventory is 40.3 tons (+5.4) [9] - PP: The spot delivery price is 6690 (unchanged), the 05 - contract futures price is 6801 (+71), and the basis is - 111 (-71). The PP comprehensive factory inventory is 41.6 tons (+1.5) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an increasing trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16]