沥青期货早报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The overall supply pressure will be reduced in the next week. [8] - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points; the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points. [8] - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support. [9] - In terms of the basis, on February 4th, the Shandong spot price is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is 9 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. It is considered neutral. [9] - Regarding inventory, the social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%; the refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. The social inventory continues to accumulate, the refinery inventory continues to decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. It is considered bullish. [9] - In terms of the disk, the MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20. It is considered bullish. [9] - Regarding the main positions, the main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. It is considered bearish. [9] - The overall expectation is that the refinery's recent production plan has been cut, reducing the supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. The inventory continues to decline. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support will strengthen in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and the asphalt 2701 will fluctuate in the range of 3,327 - 3,395. [9] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support. [11] - The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand, along with the strengthening expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States. [12] - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the recovery on the demand side is weak. [13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply side: The domestic refinery asphalt production plan in February 2026 is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production this week, and the supply pressure is expected to be reduced next week. [8] - Demand side: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points; the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points. The overall demand is lower than the historical average. [8] - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support. [9] - Basis: On February 4th, the Shandong spot price is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is 9 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. It is considered neutral. [9] - Inventory: The social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%; the refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. The social inventory continues to accumulate, the refinery inventory continues to decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. It is considered bullish. [9] - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20. It is considered bullish. [9] - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. It is considered bearish. [9] - Expectation: The refinery's recent production plan has been cut, reducing the supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. The inventory continues to decline. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support will strengthen in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and the asphalt 2701 will fluctuate in the range of 3,327 - 3,395. [9] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis trend: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026. [19][20][21] - Spread analysis: - Main contract spread: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026. [23][24] - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026. [27] - Crude oil cracking spread: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2026. [30][31] - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2026. [34] 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - It shows the historical price trends of East China and Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2026. [36][37] 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026. [40] - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026. [43][44] - Supply side: - Shipment volume: It shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026. [45][46] - Diluted asphalt port inventory: It shows the historical trends of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026. [48][49] - Production volume: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2026. [52] - Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: It shows the historical trends of the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026. [54][56] - Refinery asphalt production: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025. [57][59] - Capacity utilization rate: It shows the historical trends of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026. [60][61] - Maintenance loss volume estimate: It shows the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2026. [63][64] - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: It shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and refinery inventory) from 2019 to 2026. [66][67] - Social inventory and refinery inventory: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and refinery inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2026. [70][71] - Refinery inventory - to - stock ratio: It shows the historical trends of the refinery inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026. [74][75] - Import and export situation: - Export and import trends: It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025. [77][78] - South Korean asphalt import spread trend: It shows the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2026. [80][81] - Demand side: - Petroleum coke production: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025. [83][84] - Apparent consumption: It shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025. [86][87] - Downstream demand: - Highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025. [89][90] - New local special bonds: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025. [91] - Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: It shows the historical trends of the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024. [91] - Downstream machinery demand: It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025. [93][94][96] - Asphalt开工率: - Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率: It shows the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026. [98][99] - Asphalt开工率 by use: It shows the historical trends of the construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026. [101][102] - Downstream开工率: It shows the historical trends of the开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, TPR for shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2021 to 2026. [104][105][106] - Supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, refinery inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory. [108]