大越期货甲醇早报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is likely to experience low - level fluctuations this week. Inland methanol supply is relatively abundant, but some traditional downstream industries are shutting down for the Spring Festival, which exerts a certain downward pressure on the market. However, there is still restocking demand from some downstream sectors, and the current methanol prices in production and sales areas are at the bottom, with strong freight rates supporting the arrival prices in sales areas. Therefore, inland methanol is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In the port area, the pressure boundary has moved up to 2400. Without macro - level hype points, the port spot market is expected to fluctuate within the range below the pressure level this week. Overall, the methanol price is expected to show a relatively strong upward - trending fluctuation, with MA2605 operating between 2220 - 2300 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The domestic methanol market is expected to have low - level fluctuations this week. Inland methanol supply is loose, and some traditional downstream industries are on holiday, but there is restocking demand. The port market is expected to fluctuate below the 2400 pressure level. The methanol price is expected to be relatively strong and fluctuate, with MA2605 in the 2220 - 2300 range [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya [6]. - Methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level [6]. - A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May [6]. - CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua [7]. - There will be concentrated vessel arrivals at the port in the second half of the month [7]. - Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly [7]. - Coal - to - methanol production has a certain profit margin, and producers are actively selling [7]. - Some plants in the production areas have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price Data - Spot market: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 682 yuan/ton; the CFR price at the main port in China increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 268 US dollars/ton; the import cost increased by 6 yuan/ton to 2308 yuan/ton. The prices of methanol in different domestic regions showed different trends, with prices in Shandong, Hebei, and Fujian changing to varying degrees [8]. - Futures market: The futures closing price increased by 32 yuan/ton to 2279 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants remained unchanged at 7082 [8]. - Spread structure: The basis decreased by 19 yuan/ton to - 41 yuan/ton; the import spread decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 29 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3.2 Operating Rate Data - The weighted average national operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in different regions, such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest, all decreased to varying degrees [8]. 3.3.3 Inventory Data - As of January 29, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 993,800 tons, a decrease of 26,100 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) decreased by 30,800 tons to 499,400 tons [5]. 3.4 Maintenance Status 3.4.1 Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. The maintenance periods and losses vary by plant [60]. 3.4.2 Overseas Methanol Plant Maintenance - Some overseas methanol plants are in different operating states. For example, some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting, and some plants in the United States and other regions are operating normally or at a low level [61]. 3.4.3 Olefin Plant Maintenance - Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, which shut down for maintenance on March 15, and some plants have normal operations or are planning future maintenance [62].