大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations caused by news. The 2605 contract for lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the range of 140,040 - 153,440 yuan/ton. The supply side is predicted to see a decline in production and imports next month, while the demand side is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. [8][9][10][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,569 tons, a 2.91% week - on - week decrease but higher than the historical average. In January 2026, production was 97,900 physical tons, and next month's production is predicted to be 81,930 tons, a 16.31% month - on - month decrease. The import volume in January 2026 was 24,500 physical tons, and next month's import volume is predicted to be 21,800 tons, an 11.02% month - on - month decrease. [8][10] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,819 tons, a 0.24% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,691 tons, a 0.93% week - on - week decrease. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. [8][10] - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 142,475 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, with a production income of 8,641 yuan/ton, indicating profitability. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 144,570 yuan/ton, a 0.10% day - on - day increase, with a production income of 2,900 yuan/ton, also indicating profitability. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9] - Comprehensive Evaluation: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that on February 4, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 153,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5,780 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The overall inventory is 107,482 tons, a 1.29% week - on - week decrease, equal to the historical average, which is neutral. The disk shows the MA20 moving upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, which is neutral. The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. [9] - Likely Factors: Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and a month - on - month decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore and salt lake ends with limited downward amplitude. [12][13] 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price and Basis: The futures closing prices of various contracts showed different degrees of decline, while the basis of some contracts increased. The registered warehouse receipts were 34,114 lots, a 3.11% increase. [17] - Upstream Prices: The price of 6% lithium spodumene decreased by 0.10% to 1,945 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica concentrate remained unchanged at 4,745 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.33% to 153,000 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.33% to 149,500 yuan/ton. [17] - Positive and Cathode Materials and Lithium Battery Prices: The prices of most cathode materials and lithium batteries showed a downward trend, such as the price of ternary precursor 5523 polycrystalline consumer - type decreased by 0.10% to 104,750 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium iron phosphate power - type decreased by 0.22% to 54,265 yuan/ton. [17] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore showed a long - term trend, and the production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica showed different trends in different years. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate also fluctuated, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed different trends for lithium spodumene and lithium mica. [26] - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in different months. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a supply shortage. [29][31] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) showed different trends. The monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate also fluctuated. [33][34][35] - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations in different months. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a supply shortage. [40] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends. The export volume of lithium hydroxide also fluctuated. [43] - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in different months. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a supply shortage. [46] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Lithium Compounds: The cost and profit of lithium compounds such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate showed different trends over time. The processing cost composition of lithium mica and lithium spodumene also showed different proportions of energy consumption, auxiliary materials, and miscellaneous items. [49][52][54] 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream enterprises, and other aspects showed different trends. The inventory of lithium hydroxide also showed different trends. [58] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery: The price, production, and sales volume of power batteries showed different trends. The monthly production volume, loading volume, and export volume of power batteries also fluctuated. [60] - Energy - Storage Battery: The inventory, production, and winning bid situation of energy - storage batteries showed different trends. The monthly production volume and shipment volume of energy - storage battery cells also fluctuated. [62] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, Cost, and Profit: The price, cost, and profit of ternary precursors showed different trends. The capacity utilization rate and production volume of ternary precursors also showed different trends. [65] - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations in different months. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a supply shortage. [68] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, Cost, and Profit: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials showed different trends. The weekly operating rate and production volume of ternary materials also showed different trends. [72] - Import and Export and Inventory: The import and export volume and weekly inventory of ternary materials also showed different trends. [74] 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, Cost, and Profit: The price, cost, and profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends. The monthly operating rate and production volume of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium also showed different trends. [76] - Export and Inventory: The monthly export volume and weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium also showed different trends. [79][81] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends. The sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory index of new energy vehicles also showed different trends. [84][85][88]