广发期货日评-20260205

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - After the concentrated release of risks, both commodity and equity assets have recovered, but positions have not rebounded, indicating a stage of restorative rebound. The market sentiment is gradually improving, but the recovery process remains uncertain [3]. - Treasury bond futures are oscillating weakly and may continue to trade in a narrow range in the short term. The 10-year bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.85%, and the T2603 contract may trade between 108 - 108.3 [3]. - Gold is in a stage of bottoming out and rebounding, but bullish confidence still needs to be restored. Silver prices may fluctuate widely between $75 - $95 [3]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Financial Products - Stock Index Futures: The dividend sector led the market higher, while the TMT sector was slightly weak. After the concentrated release of risks, both commodity and equity assets recovered, but positions did not rebound. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, use bull spreads, or buy call options on days of significant intraday pullbacks to position for the index [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures oscillated weakly and may continue to trade in a narrow range in the short term. It is recommended to use range - trading strategies for single - sided positions, focus on flattening the yield curve, and arrange position transfers before the Spring Festival to avoid post - holiday liquidity shortages [3]. - Precious Metals: Gold is in a stage of bottoming out and rebounding, but bullish confidence still needs to be restored. Silver prices may fluctuate widely between $75 - $95. Platinum and palladium followed gold's rebound and entered a consolidation phase, and it is advisable to wait for a clear direction [3]. Metals - Steel and Iron Ore: Steel prices have reasonable valuations and short - term long positions can be attempted. Iron ore prices are under pressure after steel mills completed restocking. It is recommended to short at around 800 [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal prices in Shanxi have weakened slightly, and Mongolian coal prices have retreated from highs. Coke price increases by major coke producers have been implemented. Both are expected to trade in a range, and a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [3]. - Non - Ferrous Metals: Copper inventories have increased in three locations, and the CL premium is oscillating. It is recommended to take a long - term long position on dips. Aluminum prices may experience short - term increased volatility, but the long - term outlook remains positive. It is advisable to hold long positions on dips [3]. New Energy - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon futures are oscillating, and an arbitrage window is about to open. Polysilicon futures prices rose in the afternoon under the influence of the space photovoltaic concept and are expected to trade at high levels. It is advisable to wait and see [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The macro environment is temporarily stable, and the price fluctuations have narrowed. It is recommended to use range - trading strategies [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Petrochemical Products: PX and PTA are expected to trade in a high - level range with limited upward drivers. Short - fiber and bottle - grade polyester chips follow the raw material price trends. It is recommended to use range - trading strategies and look for opportunities to narrow the processing margins [3]. - Other Chemicals: Ethanol is facing significant inventory build - up pressure in February. Pure benzene and styrene are affected by supply - demand and inventory factors. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to narrow spreads [3]. Agricultural Products - Grains and Oils: The supply of soybeans and soybean meal is abundant in February. Palm oil has potential positive fundamentals in January, which may support the price. Corn prices are oscillating with weak single - sided drivers [3]. - Livestock and Poultry: The number of live pig slaughterings has increased significantly, and the supply - demand game before the festival has intensified. Egg prices continue to be weak, while apple prices are oscillating higher [3]. - Sugar, Cotton, and Others: Sugar prices are expected to trade in a range, and cotton prices have limited downward adjustment space. It is advisable to hold long positions. Egg prices are weak, and it is recommended to hold long positions in apples and then exit at an appropriate time [3].