2026年全球银行业展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the global banking industry, with expectations of robust profitability and a projected return on equity (ROE) of 13.0% in 2026, up from 12.8% in 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The global banking sector demonstrated resilience in 2025, achieving an ROE of 12.8%, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than in 2024 and significantly above pre-pandemic levels [3]. - Despite declining interest rates, the banking industry's net interest income (NII) grew by over 5% in 2025, with expectations of surpassing 7% growth in 2026 due to effective asset-liability management [4][6]. - Fee income, particularly from investment banking and wealth management, is projected to grow by over 8% in 2026, driven by increased trading activity and a strong rebound in M&A transactions [8][11]. - Credit quality remains stable, with banks maintaining adequate provisions and a focus on managing risks associated with non-bank financial institutions [12][13]. - The industry is undergoing significant transformation, with a focus on operational efficiency and technological investment to enhance competitiveness and customer engagement [14][20]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Positive Outlook for Global Banking - The global banking industry is expected to maintain strong profitability into 2026, with an ROE forecasted to reach 13.0% [3]. Section 2: Drivers of Profit Growth - Net interest income is projected to grow by over 7% in 2026, despite anticipated declines in policy rates [4]. - Fee income from investment banking and wealth management is expected to increase by up to 19% due to a resurgence in M&A activity and strong trading revenues [8][11]. Section 3: Credit Quality and Risk Management - Credit quality is expected to remain stable, with banks emphasizing strong credit standards and risk management practices [12][13]. Section 4: Industry Transformation and Innovation - The banking sector is focusing on operational simplification and technological advancements to enhance efficiency and customer service [14][20].