铂钯金期货日报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue. The platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range fluctuation pattern affected by the gold price. The support level range for London platinum is $1900 - 2000 per ounce, and for London palladium, it is $1500 - 1600 per ounce. [2] - The cooling trend in the US labor market continues, strengthening the medium - term interest rate cut expectation. Against the background of Trump's mid - term election pressure and Wash's past policy flexibility, the Fed's easing path is likely to continue. [2] - The EU's formal postponement of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthening of vehicle exhaust emission standards at the end of last year bring higher platinum loading intensity. Although the global passenger car sales are moderately adjusted due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 540.30 yuan/gram, down 46.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 442.70 yuan/gram, down 8.90 yuan. [2] - The holding volume of the platinum main contract is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the holding volume of the palladium main contract is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 546.47 yuan/gram, down 41.63 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 433.00 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan. [2] - The basis of the platinum main contract is 6.17 yuan/gram, up 5.12 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract is - 9.70 yuan/gram, up 24.90 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly) are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC (weekly) are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. [2] - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. [2] - The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.63, up 0.26; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.94%, up 0.02%. [2] - The VIX volatility index is 18.64, up 0.64. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US ISM Services PMI in January slightly declined to 53.8, better than market expectations. Business activity rebounded, but new order growth slowed, and export orders shrank at the fastest pace since March 2023. Employment hardly expanded, and the price index reached a three - month high. [2] - The US ADP added 22,000 new jobs in January, far lower than the market expectation of 48,000. The previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January non - farm employment report on February 11, job vacancy data on February 5, and reschedule the release of January CPI on February 13. [2] - Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi clarified the official stance on Iran's talks with the US in Oman, saying the negotiation will be held in Muscat, Oman's capital, around 10 a.m. on February 6. [2] - The Fed announced that it will not adjust the capital level of large - scale banks in the 2026 stress - test cycle and is currently considering multiple reforms to improve transparency. [2] - The Eurozone's CPI in January increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest level since September 2024. The core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021. Service inflation slowed to 3.2%. The market expects the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged this week. [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The European Central Bank's interest rate decision will be announced on February 5 at 21:15. [2] - The release time of the US January non - farm employment report is to be determined. [2]