瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Corn - The supply - demand pattern of US corn is relatively loose, which continues to restrain the international corn market price, and there is still potential import pressure in the international market [2] - In the domestic market, over 60% of corn has been sold by farmers in the Northeast. As the Spring Festival approaches, corn market trading is gradually weakening. Most enterprises have established safety inventories and the restocking is nearing completion. The price difference between Northeast and North - China corn has narrowed, and the advantage of outward transportation has declined. Some drying towers have stopped purchasing, and the spot price is slightly weak [2] - In the North - China and Huanghuai regions, the grass - roots trading is relatively stable. Low - quality corn has been mostly sold, and traders' willingness to stock has increased. Although the arrival volume of processing enterprises has decreased, it has increased compared with the previous period. The grain source distribution is uneven, and most enterprises' pre - festival stockpiling is gradually coming to an end. The purchase price is mainly fluctuating slightly [2] - The corn futures market was previously boosted by the strong spot market and showed a strong shock. However, there is still significant upward pressure, and the short - term high has declined [2] Corn Starch - As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics is about to stop, and downstream enterprises are actively picking up goods. In addition, a few enterprises in Hebei and Henan have reduced their operating rates due to environmental protection reasons, driving the industry inventory to continue to decline. As of February 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 99.50 million tons, a decrease of 3.30 million tons from the previous week, with a weekly decline of 3.21% and a year - on - year decline of 24.85% [3] - The corn starch futures price has slightly declined recently, generally maintaining a shock, and short - term observation is recommended [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract): 2264 yuan/ton, with a change of - 24; corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2517 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 [2] - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 552,893 lots, a decrease of 60,108; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 136,878 lots, a decrease of 5,397 [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn: - 128,297 lots, a decrease of 2,714; for corn starch: - 29,140 lots, a decrease of 2,400 [2] - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn: 53,570 lots, no change; for corn starch: 11,161 lots, no change [2] - The spread between the main CS - C contracts: 307 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 [2] External Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 429 cents/bushel, with a change of 0.25; total CBOT corn open interest (weekly): 1,707,454 contracts, an increase of 39,668 [2] - Non - commercial net long positions in CBOT corn: - 31,671 contracts, an increase of 20,033 [2] Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2,368.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.55; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun: 2,610 yuan/ton, no change [2] - FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port: 2,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 10; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang: 2,790 yuan/ton, no change [2] - CIF price of imported corn: 2,046.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.86; international freight for imported corn: 54 US dollars/ton, no change [2] - Basis of the main corn contract: 104.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.55; basis of the main corn starch contract: 93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 [2] Upstream Situation - Forecasted annual corn production in the US: 425.53 million tons; in Brazil: 131 million tons; in Argentina: 53 million tons; in China: 295 million tons; in Ukraine: 29 million tons (a decrease of 3 million tons) [2] - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 36.44 million hectares; in Brazil: 22.6 million hectares; in Argentina: 7.5 million hectares; in China: 44.3 million hectares [2] Industry Situation - Corn inventory at southern ports: 50.50 million tons, a decrease of 19.20 million tons; at northern ports: 180 million tons, an increase of 5 million tons [2] - Deep - processing corn inventory: 440.50 million tons, an increase of 56.70 million tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory: 99.50 million tons, a decrease of 3.30 million tons [2] - Monthly import volume of corn: 80 million tons, an increase of 24 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 16,740 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Monthly feed production: 3,008.60 million tons, an increase of 30.70 million tons; sample feed corn inventory days: 31.93 days, an increase of 0.61 days [2] - Deep - processing corn consumption: 138.54 million tons, an increase of 0.39 million tons; alcohol enterprise operating rate: 57.43%, an increase of 0.1%; starch enterprise operating rate: 57.79%, a decrease of 2.2% [2] - Corn starch processing profit in Shandong: - 46 yuan/ton, no change; in Hebei: 63 yuan/ton, no change; in Jilin: - 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 [2] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 8.26%, a decrease of 0.87%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 8.99%, a decrease of 0.02% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 7.21%, a decrease of 1.56%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn: 7.21%, a decrease of 1.56% [2] Industry News - As of Tuesday, the first - season corn harvesting in Brazil's Parana state has reached 10%, up 7 percentage points from the previous week, slightly lower than 11% in the same period last year and far lower than 36% in the same period in 2024 [2] - The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. Analysts expect that the net export sales of US corn for the week ending January 29, 2026, will be between 800,000 and 2 million tons [2] Key Points to Watch - The weekly corn consumption data and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises from Thursday to Friday by Mysteel [3]