瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for the methanol market is that the MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2220 - 2300 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol production has increased as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts is less than the output from restored production. The inventory of inland enterprises continues to decline, and the port inventory shows a mixed trend with de - stocking in the East China region and inventory accumulation in the South China region. In the short term, the port methanol inventory may accumulate, and the domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate is expected to continue to rise [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2225 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol is - 47 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 858,053 lots, an increase of 36,109 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 166,599 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,082, unchanged from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The price in Inner Mongolia is 1797.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 432.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 49 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 265 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 298 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 58 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.46 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.08 US dollars/million British thermal units [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 100.81 tons, down 6.48 tons. The inventory at South China ports is 40.29 tons, up 0.37 tons. The import profit of methanol is 4.36 yuan/ton, up 19.86 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, an increase of 31.64 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 368,300 tons, down 55,800 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.21%, up 1.29 percentage points [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 33.32%, down 1.19 percentage points. The operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92%, up 0.67 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid is 82.27%, up 1.6 percentage points. The operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, unchanged. The operating rate of olefins is 80.87%, down 3.42 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 799 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 24.73%, up 0.87 percentage points. The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 22.2%, up 0.51 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 24.24%, up 0.55 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 24.25%, up 0.56 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of February 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 36.83 tons, down 5.58 tons or 13.16% from the previous period. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 28.71 tons, up 2.14 tons or 8.05% from the previous period. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 141.10 tons, down 6.11 tons from the previous data. The domestic capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins plants is 83.82%, up 1.86% [3].