瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For alumina, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of stable supply and weak demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of excessive supply and weak demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 23,385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan [2] - The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum is - 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of alumina is - 198 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan [2] - The main - contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum are 207,370 lots, a decrease of 17,386 lots; the main - contract positions of alumina are 359,707 lots, a decrease of 15,991 lots [2] - LME aluminum canceled warrants are 54,525 tons, unchanged; the total inventory of alumina is 265,223 tons, an increase of 42,736 tons [2] - The three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum is 3,059 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 40 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 495,175 tons, a decrease of 8,014 tons; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.64, a decrease of 0.09 [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 21,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 680 yuan; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 66,791 tons, unchanged [2] - The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy is - 220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan; the inventory of Shanghai Aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 216,771 tons, an increase of 19,718 tons [2] - The main - contract positions of cast aluminum alloy are 4,361 lots, a decrease of 169 lots; the inventory of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 74,068 tons, an increase of 1,635 tons [2] - The warrants of Shanghai Aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 150,289 tons, a decrease of 423 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 23,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 420 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 23,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 23,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,685 yuan/ton, an increase of 480 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan [2] - The aluminum premium and discount in Shanghai Wumao is - 170 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount is - 27.72 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.73 US dollars; the basis of alumina is - 235 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region is 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina start - up rate is 83.49%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points [2] - The alumina output is 801.08 tons, a decrease of 12.72 tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 84.00%, a decrease of 1.00 percentage point [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 tons, an increase of 25.33 tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 28.90 tons, an increase of 2.32 tons [2] - The average price of broken primary aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 18,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan; the average price of broken primary aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 17,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 194,102.07 tons, an increase of 31,482.14 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 70.80 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina is 21.00 tons, an increase of 4.00 tons; the import volume of alumina is 22.78 tons, an increase of 31.36 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 77.20 tons, an increase of 3.00 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, an increase of 43,086.86 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,536.20 tons, an increase of 12.00 tons [2] - The export volume of primary aluminum is 37,575.30 tons, a decrease of 15,472.39 tons; the aluminum product output is 613.56 tons, an increase of 20.46 tons [2] - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.00 tons, a decrease of 3.00 tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 68.40 tons, a decrease of 1.60 tons [2] - The export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 tons, a decrease of 0.51 tons; the total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 tons, unchanged [2] - The aluminum alloy output is 182.50 tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 [2] - The automobile output is 341.15 vehicles, a decrease of 10.75 vehicles [2] 3.5 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 40.04%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 31.38%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 22.18%, a decrease of 0.0399 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.88, a decrease of 0.0161 [2] 3.6 Industry News - The central bank held the 2026 credit market work conference, focusing on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises [2] - The US January "small non - farm" ADP employment number was lower than expected, with only 22,000 new private - sector jobs added in January [2] - The US January ISM services PMI index slightly declined to 53.8, better than market expectations, but new order growth slowed and export orders shrank at the fastest rate since March 2023 [2] - Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan issue and the need for the US to handle arms sales to Taiwan carefully [2] - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in January were 900,000, a year - on - year increase of 1%. Tesla China's wholesale sales were 69,129, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [2] - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said that efforts should be made to ensure the basic housing needs of young people, develop affordable rental housing, public rental housing, and配售型保障性住房, and support local governments to appropriately increase the area of affordable housing according to the needs of multi - child families [2]