天然橡胶产业日报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the production - reducing period, with the total supply showing a contraction [2] - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is accumulating, with both bonded and general trade warehouses seeing inventory increases. The increase in total inbound volume and the significant decline in outbound volume have led to the continuation of the inventory accumulation state [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has declined this week, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may further decline. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,600 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,500 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan [2] - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [2] - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 150,013 lots, a decrease of 9,904 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 50,827 lots, a decrease of 544 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 38,712 lots, an increase of 2,379 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8,112 lots, an increase of 1,527 lots [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 111,570 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 50,399 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,970 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,965 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25 US dollars [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,469 yuan/ton, an increase of 88 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 169 yuan/ton, a decrease of 117 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 61.19 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.58 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (films) is 57.72 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.52 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue water) is 58.8 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 19.93 million tons, an increase of 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 million tons, an increase of 9.41 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly full - steel tire operating rate is 62.44%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points; the weekly semi - steel tire operating rate is 74.84%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.78 days, a decrease of 0.02 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 48.78 days, an increase of 0.25 days [2] - The monthly output of full - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, an increase of 80,000 pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.52%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.09%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 24.51%, a decrease of 0.84 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 24.52%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), basically the same as in December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 722,000 vehicles in the same period of the previous year [2] - As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area is 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 1.23%. The bonded area inventory is 97,600 tons, an increase of 3.34%; the general trade inventory is 494,100 tons, an increase of 0.82% [2] - As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points [2]