芳烃橡胶早报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, although it has shifted to weekly inventory accumulation, the processing fee has further improved due to good long - term expectations and slow actual production increase. The overall valuation is not low. The downward driving force mainly depends on the production increase of mainstream suppliers' existing devices, and there is uncertainty without new production. Currently, the safety margin for narrowing is not high [1]. - For MEG, in the short term, inventory accumulation continues, but the extent of inventory reduction in the long - term has increased. There is a certain need for valuation repair, but the elasticity is still limited during the production cycle, so it is regarded as a sideways trend [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the downstream seasonality is expected to continue to weaken, and it has entered the pre - holiday production reduction stage. The absolute inventory pressure is not large, with low - to - medium valuation and weak driving force, and the overall contradiction is limited. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Device and Market Conditions: The near - end TA device operates stably, the start - up rate remains the same month - on - month, the polyester load continues to decline, the inventory continues to accumulate, the basis is weak, and the spot processing fee has improved. Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million - ton device has restarted. The domestic start - up rate of PX remains stable, the overseas load has increased slightly, the PXN has shrunk month - on - month, the disproportionation benefit has improved, and the isomerization benefit has increased. The price difference between American and Asian aromatics remains weak [1]. - Price and Index Changes: From January 30 to February 5, 2026, the price of crude oil decreased by 1.9, the price of PX CFR decreased by 6, the PTA domestic spot price decreased by 9, and the PTA processing fee decreased by 40 [1]. MEG - Device and Market Conditions: Near - end domestic devices have both maintenance and restart, the overall start - up rate has increased slightly, the port inventory has accumulated significantly at the beginning of next week, the forecast of arrivals during the week has decreased, the basis has strengthened slightly, and the coal - based production benefit has remained stable. Sinopec Quanzhou's 500,000 - ton device and Zhongke Refining & Chemical's 500,000 - ton device have restarted. Due to the influence of price comparison, the satellite device's production conversion plan has been introduced [1]. - Price and Index Changes: From January 30 to February 5, 2026, the price of MEG decreased by 26, the price of MEG coal - based production decreased by 20, and the MEG processing fee decreased by 26 [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Device and Market Conditions: Near - end device maintenance has been concentrated, the start - up rate has dropped significantly to 85.3%, the sales - to - production ratio has weakened month - on - month, the inventory has increased slightly, and the spot processing fee has weakened month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the yarn - making end has continued to decline, the raw material inventory has decreased, the finished product inventory has remained stable, and the benefit has improved month - on - month [1]. - Price and Index Changes: The spot price is around 6536, and the market basis is around - 70 for the 03 contract [1]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Price Changes: From January 30 to February 5, 2026, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber decreased by 15, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber decreased by 10, the price of RMB - denominated mixed rubber decreased by 130, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber decreased by 300 [1]. Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Related Products - Price and Profit Changes: From January 30 to February 5, 2026, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased, and the production profit of some products such as ABS and PS has changed. For example, the domestic profit of ABS has increased from - 446 to - 456, and the domestic profit of PS (East China transparent benzene) has increased from 275 to 648 [1].