大越期货沪铜早报-20260206

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply side is disturbed, smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 percentage point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity; the overall situation is bullish [2] - The spot price is 101,445, with a basis of 465, showing a premium over futures; the situation is neutral [2] - On February 5, copper inventory increased by 1,925 to 180,575 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 7,067 tons to 233,004 tons compared to last week; the situation is neutral [2] - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward; the situation is bearish [2] - The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing; the situation is bullish [2] - Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the incident at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine is intensifying. Copper prices have reached a new high and are currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - The fundamentals, basis, inventory,盘面, main positions, and expectations of copper are analyzed, with a comprehensive consideration of bullish, neutral, and bearish factors [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors include global policy easing and tight mine supply, as well as geopolitical disturbances between Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, and slow mine production increase and the production cut event at Freeport's Indonesian mine [3][4] - Bearish factors include the unexpected increase in US comprehensive tariffs and the fact that the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [4] Spot and Inventory - Information on spot prices, inventory types, and inventory changes is provided, and the bonded area inventory is rising from a low level [6][13] 期现价差 - No specific content provided in the given text Exchange Inventory - No specific content provided in the given text Processing Fee - The processing fee is declining [15] CFTC - No specific content provided in the given text Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, there will be a tight balance. The China annual supply - demand balance table for copper from 2018 - 2024 is presented, showing production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data [19][21]