大越期货油脂早报-20260206

Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Report Date: February 6, 2026 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 - Contact Information: 0575-85226759 [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils are in a state of shock consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the imported inventory is stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary of Different Oils 3.1 Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey institutions show that Malaysia's palm oil export data in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Subsequently, entering the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,422, the basis is 318, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. [2] - Market Trend: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil (Y2605) will fluctuate in the range of 7,900 - 8,300. [2] 3.2 Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report data is the same, and the report is slightly bearish with inventory exceeding expectations. January's export data has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production reduction season. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,032, the basis is -10, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 46%. [3] - Market Trend: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil (P2605) will fluctuate in the range of 8,900 - 9,300. [3] 3.3 Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The same MPOB report data as above, slightly bearish with inventory exceeding expectations. January's export data has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production reduction season. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,980, the basis is 836, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. [4] - Market Trend: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil (OI2605) will fluctuate in the range of 9,000 - 9,400. [4] 4. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: The US soybean inventory-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil tremor season. [5] - Bearish Factors: Oil prices are at a historically high level, domestic oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils is high. [5] - Main Logic: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5]