甲醇聚烯烃早报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [2][5][7] 2. Core Views - For methanol, the situation in Iran continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance with several plant shutdowns and production cuts planned. The price is likely to be range - bound, with the MTO profit capping the upside. A bearish view or selling call options may be appropriate [2] - For plastics, the futures market fluctuates, the spot price is stable, and the basis is weak. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the supply - demand balance of LL in May is expected to face significant pressure [2] - For PP, the futures market is stable, the basis is weak. The import and export profits are negative, and the export volume declines slightly. The overall inventory is neutral, and the supply - demand balance in May and later is expected to be slightly under pressure [5] - For PVC, the basis improves slightly, the trading volume is average. The overall profit is low, the inventory is moderately high, and the long - term outlook is poor due to weak real - estate demand [6][7] 3. Summary by Different Categories Methanol - Price Changes: From 2026/01/30 to 2026/02/05, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased by 70, the price of South China spot decreased by 20, and the main contract basis changed from - 55 to - 35 [2] - Market Situation: Iran's situation affects the market, MTO plants show resistance, and the price is restricted by MTO profit [2] Plastics - Price and Basis: The futures price of L fluctuates, the spot price is stable, and the basis is weak. The regional basis and price differences change [2] - Profit and Inventory: The oil - and coal - based production profits decline, the upstream coal chemical industry and Sinopec & PetroChina reduce inventory, while the social inventory accumulates. The supply of standard products increases [2] PP - Price and Basis: The futures price is stable, the basis is weak, and the regional price differences change [5] - Profit and Inventory: The import and export profits are negative, the downstream profit improves, the supply has temporary maintenance plans, and the inventory situation is complex with overall neutrality [5] PVC - Price and Basis: The basis improves slightly, the trading volume is average, and the prices of raw materials and products change [6][7] - Profit and Inventory: The comprehensive profit is low, the upstream starts production at a moderate rate, the demand is stable, the inventory is moderately high, and the export remains stable [7]