大越期货贵金属早报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the U.S. employment data is weak and there is AI panic. CME and SHFE have raised margins again, causing the gold price to fall. However, the upward trend of the gold price remains unchanged. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to around 8.8 yuan/gram. Today, attention should be paid to the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February in the U.S., speeches by Fed and ECB members, and the progress of the U.S.-Iran peace talks. On Sunday, there will be elections in Japan [4]. - For silver, due to the weak U.S. employment data and AI panic, and the margin hikes by CME and SHFE, the silver price has plummeted again. The forward discount structure of Shanghai silver remains unchanged, and the bullish sentiment is still strong. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged to 1,500 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment has cooled rapidly. The sentiment in the AI technology sector has changed, putting greater downward pressure on the silver price. The volatility of silver at high levels is extremely high, so cautious operation is required [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 3.08% to $4,798.10 per ounce. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell 9.34 basis points to 4.180%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.34% to 97.96. The offshore RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar to 6.9409. The U.S. three major stock indexes and European three major stock indexes all closed down [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures fell 16.64% to $70.35 per ounce. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell 9.34 basis points to 4.180%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.34% to 97.96. The offshore RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar to 6.9409. The U.S. three major stock indexes and European three major stock indexes all closed down [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is - 0.96, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 104,052 kilograms, an increase of 1,020 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net long position is held, and the main long position is reduced, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 455, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 412,459 kilograms, a decrease of 10,782 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral. The main net long position is held, and the main long position is increased, which is bullish [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 08:00: U.S. President Trump's speech and the launch of the TrumpRx website - 09:30: Speech by Bank of Japan审议委员 Masayuki in a meeting with local officials - 10:05: Vietnam's January import - export and trade balance - 12:30: Announcement of the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of India - 14:45: Speech by ECB Executive Board member Cipollone on the digital euro - 15:00: Germany's December industrial output - 17:00: ECB's publication of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and speech by ECB Governing Council member Kocher - 20:15: Speech by Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill - 21:30: Canada's January employment report (including employment numbers and unemployment rate) - 23:00: Preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February in the U.S. - Next day 01:00: Speech by Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson on economic prospects and supply - side inflation dynamics - Next day 04:00: U.S. December consumer credit - Saturday: Opening of the 3rd China All - Solid - State Battery Innovation and Development Summit Forum (lasting two days); China's January foreign exchange reserves - Sunday: Elections in Japan and Thailand [16] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: The mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and loose policies. The risk appetite is high, and it is difficult for the gold price to fall. The overall strength of metals drives the gold price, but the downside risk also increases [9]. - Silver: The mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and loose policies. The risk appetite is high, and there is still macro - level support. The bullish and investment sentiment is high. Under regulatory pressure, the sentiment of the silver price has cooled slightly but has not declined [13]. 3.5 Position Data - Gold: As of February 5, 2026, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 9,625 to 150,068, a decrease of 6.03%. The short position volume decreased by 1,521 to 37,411, a decrease of 3.91%. The net position decreased by 8,104 to 112,657, a decrease of 6.71% [32]. - Silver: As of February 5, 2026, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 7,730 to 306,423, a decrease of 2.46%. The short position volume increased by 51 to 205,114, an increase of 0.02%. The net position decreased by 7,781 to 101,309, a decrease of 7.13% [33].