有色早报-20260206

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - The copper market currently has strong support from rigid demand, and the fundamentals are characterized by limited supply and stable demand. In the medium - term, the price of copper is expected to rise, and in the short - term, the stabilization of copper prices depends on the stabilization of precious metals. Attention should be paid to the support levels of 97,000 and 99,000 for Shanghai copper [1] - Aluminum prices fluctuated sharply this week. If there is a callback opportunity, one can consider going long. However, if the Iranian situation deteriorates, aluminum prices may rise further [1] - The domestic fundamentals of zinc are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility due to limited long - term capital investment and potential supply disruptions from Iran. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [2] - The short - term fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous metals market is dominant, affected by the reduction of the Indonesian nickel ore quota [3] - The supply - demand contradiction of lead has been alleviated, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [8] - The short - term fundamentals of tin are not weak, and it is recommended to wait and see under the current large macro - sentiment fluctuations. In the long - term, if the macro situation changes, the price may decline significantly in the second half of the year [11] - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, the price will mainly fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [12] - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate are strong, and there is a large space for positive arbitrage between months if the inventory in the intermediate link is further reduced [12] - The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak, and the short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous metals market is dominant, affected by the news of the Indonesian quota [14] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated significantly. The US's ability to siphon inventory is disappearing, but global consumption is good. The downstream showed obvious price - setting behavior after the price adjustment. The support from the industrial side remains. The stabilization of copper prices depends on the stabilization of precious metals, and attention should be paid to the support levels of 97,000 and 99,000 for Shanghai copper [1] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fluctuated sharply this week due to the seasonal decline in the start - up rate of aluminum products, the spill - over of the overall fluctuations in the domestic non - ferrous and precious metals sectors, and overseas macro and geopolitical events. If there is a callback opportunity, one can consider going long. If the Iranian situation deteriorates, aluminum prices may rise further [1] Zinc - On the supply side, the domestic and imported TC is accelerating its decline, and the domestic zinc ore is tightening. The smelting profit is supported by the high prices of sulfuric acid and silver. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is average. The market is optimistic about the allocation flexibility of zinc, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [2] Nickel - On the supply side, the output of pure nickel decreased slightly. On the demand side, it is weak. The inventory in China is increasing, and the LME inventory remains stable. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous metals market is dominant [3] Lead - On the supply side, the production of primary lead is driven by profit, and the production of recycled lead is affected by environmental protection and losses. On the demand side, the battery start - up rate is high, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [8] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated sharply. On the supply side, there are differences in the recovery expectations of Wa State in the first quarter, and Indonesia has determined its quota for 2026. On the demand side, there are differences in the downstream restocking willingness, and the overseas consumption is flat. The domestic inventory has increased slightly, and the overseas LME inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the price may decline significantly in the second half of the year if the macro situation changes [11] Industrial Silicon - The production in the southwest region is mostly shut down, and some factories in Xinjiang are reducing production. The monthly supply is expected to continue to shrink, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in February. The price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, the price will mainly fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [12] Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the absolute price and positions of lithium carbonate declined significantly due to macro - sentiment, regulatory tightening, and concerns about terminal negative feedback. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and there is a large space for positive arbitrage between months if the inventory in the intermediate link is further reduced [12] Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the steel mill production decreased slightly. On the demand side, the downstream is entering the off - season. The cost has increased slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and the short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous metals market is dominant [14]