大越期货沥青期货早报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, a 3.30% decrease from the previous month. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 27.325%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points from the previous week. The production of sample enterprises is 456,000 tons, a 4.20% decrease from the previous week, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 1.022 million tons, a 1.79% increase from the previous week. The refinery has reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - On the demand side, the start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 25.5%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous week, lower than the historical average; the start - up rate of building asphalt is 3.3%, a decrease of 0.50 percentage points from the previous week, lower than the historical average; the start - up rate of modified asphalt is 5.7161%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous week, higher than the historical average; the start - up rate of road - modified asphalt is 14%, unchanged from the previous week, higher than the historical average; the start - up rate of waterproofing membranes is 18%, a decrease of 2.00 percentage points from the previous week, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a 85.30% increase from the previous day. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a 81.75% decrease from the previous week. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - As of February 5, the spot price in Shandong is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract is - 89 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Social inventory is 892,000 tons, a 3.48% increase from the previous week; factory inventory is 602,000 tons, a 1.14% decrease from the previous week; port diluted asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a 90.91% increase from the previous week. Social inventory continues to accumulate, factory inventory continues to decline, and port inventory continues to accumulate [9]. - On the disk, MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 03 contract closes above MA20 [9]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing [9]. - It is expected that the refinery's recent production plan has been reduced, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory continues to decline; crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 3,306 - 3,372 [9]. - The bullish factor is that the crude oil cost is relatively high, providing some support [11]. - The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the recovery is weak on the demand side [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply - side analysis: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, with a 3.30% month - on - month decrease. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 27.325%, a 1.20 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The production of sample enterprises is 456,000 tons, a 4.20% decrease from the previous week, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 1.022 million tons, a 1.79% increase from the previous week. The refinery has reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - Demand - side analysis: The start - up rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes show different trends, with the overall demand lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost analysis: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a 85.30% increase from the previous day. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a 81.75% decrease from the previous week. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - Basis analysis: As of February 5, the spot price in Shandong is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract is - 89 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory analysis: Social inventory is 892,000 tons, a 3.48% increase from the previous week; factory inventory is 602,000 tons, a 1.14% decrease from the previous week; port diluted asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a 90.91% increase from the previous week. Social inventory continues to accumulate, factory inventory continues to decline, and port inventory continues to accumulate [9]. - Disk analysis: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 03 contract closes above MA20 [9]. - Main positions analysis: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing [9]. - Expectation: It is expected that the refinery's recent production plan has been reduced, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory continues to decline; crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 3,306 - 3,372 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis trend: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices [17][18]. - Spread analysis - Main - contract spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for spread trading analysis [21][22]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24][25]. - Crude oil cracking spread: The report shows the historical trends of the cracking spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [27][28][29]. - Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt to SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the relative price relationships among them [31][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the situation of the asphalt spot market [34][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis - Asphalt profit: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the profitability of asphalt production [37][38]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the production choice of refineries [40][41][42]. - Supply - side analysis - Shipment volume: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the supply situation of asphalt [43][44]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: The report shows the historical trends of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [46][47]. - Production volume: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the production situation of asphalt [49][50]. - Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: The report shows the historical trends of the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026, which helps to understand the impact of raw materials on asphalt production [52][54]. - Refinery asphalt production: The report shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the production capacity of refineries [55][57]. - Start - up rate: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly start - up rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2026, which helps to understand the production activity of asphalt [58][59]. - Estimated maintenance loss volume: The report shows the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2026, which helps to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on production [61][62]. - Inventory analysis - Exchange warehouse receipts: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [64][65]. - Social inventory and factory inventory: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2026, which helps to understand the overall inventory situation of asphalt [68][69]. - Factory inventory inventory ratio: The report shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory management of refineries [72][73]. - Import - export situation - Export and import trends: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [75][76]. - South Korean asphalt import price difference trend: The report shows the historical trends of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the competitiveness of imported asphalt [78][79][80]. - Demand - side analysis - Petroleum coke production: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in the petroleum coke production process [81][82]. - Apparent consumption: The report shows the historical trends of the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the overall demand for asphalt [84][85]. - Downstream demand - Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in highway construction [87][88]. - New local special bonds: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the investment in infrastructure construction and the potential demand for asphalt [89]. - Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: The report shows the historical trends of the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024, which helps to understand the development trend of infrastructure construction and the demand for asphalt [89]. - Downstream machinery demand: The report shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery field [91][92][94]. - Asphalt start - up rate - Heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate: The report shows the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate from 2019 to 2025 and the average level in 2026, which helps to understand the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [96][97]. - Asphalt start - up rate by use: The report shows the historical trends of the start - up rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 and the average level in 2026, which helps to understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [99][100]. - Downstream start - up situation: The report shows the historical trends of the start - up rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2021 to 2026, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in the downstream industries [102][103][104]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand situation of asphalt [106].