大越期货豆粕早报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2605 fluctuates in the range of 2720 - 2780. The US soybeans are oscillating and rising, supported by China's potential soybean purchases and technical buying. The domestic soybean meal rebounds after hitting the bottom, affected by the US soybean trend and the peak - season demand at the end of the year. The news is mixed, and it may maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - The soybean A2605 fluctuates in the range of 4340 - 4440. The US soybeans are oscillating and rising, and the domestic soybeans are oscillating in a narrow range. The strong spot price and short - term good demand support the market, and it will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term under the interaction of the implementation of the Sino - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2720 and 2780, and the soybean A2605 is expected to fluctuate between 4340 and 4440 [9][11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybeans are oscillating above the thousand - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level in January. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and the soybean meal has returned to an oscillating range in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal remained good in January, supporting the price expectation. The soybean meal maintains an oscillating pattern under the cross - influence of the US soybean trend and the rebound in demand [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production areas, and affected by the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, the soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean production areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in January; Brazilian soybeans have started planting, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation [15]. - Bearish factors: Brazilian soybeans have a good harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Volume Data: The report provides the trading average price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from January 28 to February 5, as well as the price data of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot from January 29 to February 5 [16][18]. - Inventory Data: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is 94.72 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.27% and a year - on - year increase of 70.15%. The soybean inventory of oil mills is 687.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.62% and a year - on - year increase of 31.81% [9][11]. - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides the global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [32][33]. 3.5 Position Data - For soybean meal M2605, the main short positions decreased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - For soybean A2605, the main long positions decreased, and the funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Information - The soybean and rapeseed meal spot price spread has narrowed, and the spread of the 2605 contract has declined from a high level [29]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has returned to a high level, and the soybean meal production in December increased year - on - year [25][50]. - The downstream procurement in China has rebounded from a low level, and the pick - up volume remains at a relatively high level [27]. - The US soybean weekly export inspection decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans has entered a low level at the beginning of the year, and the year - on - year figure has recently decreased [47]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has continued to decline [48]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have continued to decline, and the inventory demand maintains a good expectation [52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has oscillated and declined following the US soybeans, and the margin on the futures market has fluctuated slightly [54]. - The pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and declined slightly month - on - month [56]. - The pig price has declined slightly recently, and the piglet price has remained weak [58]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has continued to rise [60]. - The domestic pig - farming profit is slightly profitable [62].