大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall assessment of the lithium carbonate market is complex, with a neutral fundamental situation, and it is recommended to operate cautiously due to large market fluctuations [8] - The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - led, and the market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,569 tons, a 2.91% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. In January 2026, production was 97,900 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,930 physical tons, a 16.31% month - on - month decrease. The import volume in January was 24,500 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 21,800 physical tons, an 11.02% month - on - month decrease [8] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,819 tons, a 0.24% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,691 tons, a 0.93% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8] - Cost: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 142,310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a production income of 3,100 yuan/ton, showing a profit. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 140,070 yuan/ton, a 3.11% day - on - week decrease, with a production income of - 1,420 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation [8] - Basis: On February 5th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 144,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 11,220 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8] - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 19,003 tons, unchanged from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 43,657 tons, a 7.53% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 43,450 tons, a 9.25% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 105,463 tons, a 1.87% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average [8] - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [8] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [8] - Likely Factors: Lithium mica manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, and a month - on - month decline in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile [9] - Negative Factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level, and the decline is limited [10] - Main Logic: Under the tight supply - demand balance, the market is affected by emotional fluctuations caused by news [11] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Lithium Ore Supply: The price of lithium ore has shown certain fluctuations. The production and import volume of lithium ore also have corresponding changes. For example, the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has decreased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed [22] - Lithium Carbonate Supply: The weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate have different trends. The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) also shows different changes [29] - Lithium Hydroxide Supply: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide have corresponding data changes [40] - Cost and Profit of Lithium Compounds: The cost and profit of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the profit of lithium hydroxide processing and export, all have different trends [46] - Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, shows different trends [55] - Demand - Related: The demand for lithium batteries (power batteries, energy - storage batteries), ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate/lithium iron phosphate, and new energy vehicles all have corresponding data changes, including production, sales, and export volume [57]