大越期货燃料油早报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fuel oil market is affected by multiple factors, with a neutral supply - demand situation. The low - sulfur market has sufficient supply, and the high - sulfur market also maintains an abundant supply. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The market follows the trend of crude oil, with the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure being weak and the high - sulfur fuel oil market performing slightly stronger. FU2603 is expected to operate in the 2760 - 2810 range, and LU2603 in the 3250 - 3300 range [3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of fuel oil show a neutral supply - demand situation. The 2 - month inflow of arbitrage cargoes from the West is expected to be high, keeping the low - sulfur market well - supplied. The high - sulfur fuel oil market also maintains abundant supply due to stable arrivals at the Singapore port. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures. The inventory in Singapore increased by 950,000 barrels to 25.529 million barrels in the week of February 4. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward. The main positions in both high - sulfur and low - sulfur are short positions, with short positions decreasing. The overnight crude oil fluctuated, and the fuel oil followed. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is slightly stronger [3] - The prices of the FU and LU main contracts increased by 1.40% and 1.14% respectively, and the basis increased by 19.72% and 16%. The spot prices of various types of fuel oil also increased, with the Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil rising by 2.12% [5][6] 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Iranian situation turmoil and the issuance of Chinese import quotas [4] - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] - Market driver: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The supply of fuel oil is abundant, with high inflows of arbitrage cargoes from the West for low - sulfur and stable arrivals at Singapore port for high - sulfur. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival [3] 3.4 Spread Data - The report provides the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures, but no specific numerical analysis is given [10] 3.5 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on February 4, 2026, was 25.529 million barrels, an increase of 950,000 barrels compared to the previous period. Historical inventory data from November 26, 2025, to February 4, 2026, are also provided [3][8]