LPG早报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 5th, the LPG night - market followed the oil price decline. The 03 - 04 month - spread was - 295, and the 03 basis was - 91 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas at 4,100). The FEI on the external market rose 4.75 dollars to 537.75, and the CP fell 0.25 dollars to 532.75. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 35 (Shanghai Yuchi + 35) [1] - This week, the futures price fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), the 03 - 04 month - spread was - 294 (-16), - 203 (-8). The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4,418 (+46). There were 5,867 warehouse receipts (-31), with Haiyu Petrochemical decreasing by 31. The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI month - spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB month - spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased; the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased [1] - The internal - external spread weakened significantly. The PG - FEI was 37.5 (-17.8), and the PG - CP was 59 (-8). Freight rates increased significantly due to North American cold snaps delaying loading operations and tight supply - demand, along with the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the recent tense situation in Iran. The East China propane arrival discount was 91 (+6); the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB discounts were 19.25 (-16.75), - 15 (-35), 46.89 (-15.6). The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 29 (-11) [1] - The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at - 237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53 pct). Fundamentally, geopolitical risks remain, and the rising external price supports the positive sentiment of domestic LPG futures. However, the poor downstream profit in China and pre - holiday inventory reduction actions result in weak support for the spot price. Currently, the internal basis is weak, and the month - spread valuation is neutral. Future attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the February cold snap in the US and the development of the Iranian situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Data - From January 30th to February 5th, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as prices of propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - post - carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and the main basis showed different degrees of change [1] 3.2 Daily Viewpoint - On February 5th, the LPG night - market followed the oil price decline. The 03 - 04 month - spread was - 295, the 03 basis was - 91 (using Shanghai civil gas at 4,100 for calculation). The FEI on the external market rose 4.75 dollars to 537.75, the CP fell 0.25 dollars to 532.75, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 35 (Shanghai Yuchi + 35) [1] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the futures price fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances, with changes in the 03 basis, 03 - 04 month - spread, and the price of the cheapest deliverable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 31. The February CP official price met expectations. There were changes in the FEI, CP, and MB month - spreads, the oil - gas ratio, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio [1] - The internal - external spread weakened significantly. Freight rates increased significantly. There were changes in propane discounts in different regions and the FEI - MOPJ spread. The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly, and the PDH operating rate decreased. Fundamentally, geopolitical risks remain, and there are differences in the support for futures and spot prices. The internal basis is weak, the month - spread valuation is neutral, the internal - external valuation is moderately high, and attention should be paid to relevant factors in the future [1]