碳酸锂市场周报：上游挺价下游低买，锂价博弈震荡运行-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price has weakened in a volatile manner, with a weekly decline of 10.31% and an amplitude of 19.38%. As of February 6, 2026, the closing price of the main contract was 132,920 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, the price of lithium ore has declined with the drop in lithium prices. On the supply side, upstream producers are holding back sales and reducing production capacity due to the approaching Spring Festival. On the demand side, downstream buyers are more willing to purchase at low prices as the holiday approaches, but the demand is expected to decline after the completion of inventory replenishment. Overall, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate may be weak due to the pre - holiday effect [7]. - The recommended trading strategy is to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - The main contract of lithium carbonate has weakened in a volatile manner, with a weekly decline of 10.31% and an amplitude of 19.38%. As of the end of the week, the closing price of the main contract was 132,920 yuan/ton [7]. - The central bank held a credit market work meeting in 2026, focusing on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises [7]. - The price of lithium ore has declined with the drop in lithium prices. Upstream producers are holding back sales and reducing production capacity during the price decline and approaching the Spring Festival. Downstream buyers are more willing to purchase at low prices as the holiday approaches, but the demand is expected to decline after the completion of inventory replenishment. Overall, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate may be weak due to the pre - holiday effect [7]. - The recommended trading strategy is to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - As of February 6, 2026, the closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate was 132,920 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 15,280 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 5,320 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 4,340 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2 Spot Price - As of February 6, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 134,500 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 26,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 1,580 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 10,720 yuan/ton [19]. 3.3 Upstream Market 3.3.1 Lithium Spodumene - As of February 6, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 1,995 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 50 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.9408, a weekly decline of 0.07% [23]. 3.3.2 Lithium Mica - As of February 6, 2026, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 13,900 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 2,600 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 6,350 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 800 yuan/ton [28]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - According to customs statistics, as of December 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 tons (8.77%) from November, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The monthly export volume was 911.898 tons, an increase of 152.66 tons (20.11%) from November, and a year - on - year increase of 45.97% [34]. - According to CBC statistics, as of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, an increase of 2,840 tons (5.26%) from November, and a year - on - year increase of 50.08%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [34]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: As of February 6, 2026, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 130,000 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 8,000 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 233,150 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons (0.91%) from November, and a year - on - year increase of 44.19% [37]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 55,450 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 18,000 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 269,330 tons, an increase of 440 tons (0.16%) from November, and a year - on - year increase of 32.48%. The monthly operating rate was 60%, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 6% [42]. - Ternary Materials: As of December 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 60,430 tons, a decrease of 1,090 tons (1.77%) from November, and a year - on - year increase of 16.26%. The monthly operating rate was 50%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials continued to weaken [45]. - Lithium Manganate: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,030 tons, a decrease of 180 tons (1.76%) from November, and a year - on - year increase of 1.52%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 54,000 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 20,000 yuan/ton [49]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,770 tons, a decrease of 280 tons (1.74%) from November, and a year - on - year increase of 118.72% [52]. 3.4.3 Application Side - New Energy Vehicles: As of December 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 47.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 7.01%. The monthly production was 1,718,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 8.62%; the monthly sales were 1,710,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 6.2% [55]. - New Energy Vehicle Exports: As of December 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 2.615 million, a year - on - year increase of 103.66% [59]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is - 1.38, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [64].