沪铜市场周报：供给略减逢低备库，铜价或将有所支撑-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and pre - holiday stockpiling demand boost. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly increase or decrease of - 3.45% and an amplitude of 7.61%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 100,100 yuan/ton [6] - International Situation: Fed Governor Cook said that the Fed must bring inflation back to the target level in the near term, and the current risk is biased towards rising inflation, while the uncertainty of the economic outlook remains high [6] - Domestic Situation: In January, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, and logistics business maintained an expansion trend [6] - Fundamentals: The spot index of copper concentrate TC is running at a low level, the global mine shortage situation has not improved, and the support of ore prices for copper prices is still strong. Due to tight raw material supply and approaching holidays, domestic copper production may decline. Copper prices have significantly corrected driven by the external market, and the downstream procurement inquiry sentiment has gradually increased, with the willingness to stockpile at low prices before the festival rising. Affected by the off - season consumption, domestic copper inventories show seasonal accumulation [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Contract: As of February 6, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 495 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,225 yuan/ton. The main contract was quoted at 100,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,580 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 175,306 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 47,628 lots [13] - Spot Price: As of February 6, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 99,605 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,715 yuan/ton [19] - Cross - period Spread: As of February 6, 2026, the cross - period spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 510 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 220 yuan/ton [19] - Premium and Position: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 44 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 US dollar/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 51,182 lots, an increase of 9,517 lots compared with last week [25] - Option Market: As of February 6, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai copper main contract was above the 90th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option open interest was 0.6583, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0839 [30] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Quotation and Processing Fee: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate quotation in the main mining area (Jiangxi) in China was 91,870 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,280 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was quoted at 2,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [33] - Import and Spread: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7043 million tons, an increase of 178,000 tons compared with November, an increase of 7.05%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.24%. As of the latest data this week, the refined - scrap copper spread (including tax) was 7,127.53 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 746.7 yuan/ton [37] - Production and Inventory: As of November 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,923 thousand tons, a decrease of 11 thousand tons compared with October, a decrease of 0.57%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 78.8%, an increase of 1.9% compared with October. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 523,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,000 tons [42] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined Copper Production: As of December 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons compared with November, an increase of 7.28%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. As of November 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,371 thousand tons, a decrease of 30 thousand tons compared with October, a decrease of 1.25%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 80.3%, an increase of 1.4% compared with October [44] - Refined Copper Import: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 298,027.317 tons, a decrease of 6,677.56 tons compared with November, a decrease of 2.19%, and a year - on - year decrease of 27%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was 225.56 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,847.46 yuan/ton [50][51] - Social Inventory: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory increased by 5,600 tons compared with last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 8,705 tons compared with last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,321 tons compared with last week. The total social inventory was 352,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,500 tons [56] 3.5 Downstream and Application - Copper Products: As of December 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, an increase of 3,100 tons compared with November, an increase of 0.14%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared with November, an increase of 2.33%, and a year - on - year decrease of 21.43% [62] - Power Grid and Appliance: As of December 2025, the cumulative investment completion amount of power and grid increased by 5.11% and - 4.65% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs decreased by 4.4%, 9.6%, increased by 5.7%, 7%, and decreased by 1.2% year - on - year respectively [66] - Real Estate and Integrated Circuit: As of December 2025, the cumulative investment completion amount of real estate development was 827.8814 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2% and a month - on - month increase of 5.34%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 484,279,481,000 pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.14% [73] 3.6 Overall Situation - Global Supply and Demand: According to ICSG statistics, as of November 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 94 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of November 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 100,100 tons [78]