生猪市场周报：生猪弱势调整，关注节前资金表现-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the live hog price fluctuated and closed lower, with the main contract 2605 down 0.21% for the week. The supply pressure before the Spring Festival still exists, but the continuous price decline has stimulated the sentiment of some enterprises to hold back sales and support prices. The demand support for prices will weaken after the pre - holiday stocking ends next week and considering the weakening demand expectation after the Spring Festival. The live hog futures market may operate with weak adjustments, and attention should be paid to the risk of capital changes before the Spring Festival [8][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The live hog price fluctuated and closed lower this week, with the main contract 2605 down 0.21% for the week [8][13]. - Market Outlook: Large - scale farms are increasing the weight - reducing slaughter, and small and medium - sized farmers are also actively selling. The supply pressure before the Spring Festival still exists. However, the continuous price decline has stimulated some enterprises' sentiment of holding back sales and supporting prices, and the slaughter rhythm may fluctuate slightly. The supply in the next two months is relatively sufficient. The demand support for prices will weaken after the pre - holiday stocking ends next week and considering the weakening demand expectation after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the risk of capital changes before the Spring Festival. Overall, the game between supply and demand continues, and the live hog futures market may operate with weak adjustments [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Movement: The futures price fluctuated and closed lower this week, with the main contract 2605 down 0.21% for the week [10][13]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: As of February 6, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live hog futures was 47,911 lots, an increase of 1,605 lots from last week. The number of live hog futures warehouse receipts was 647, an increase of 647 from the previous week [19]. - Contract Spreads: The spread between lh2605 and lh2607 contracts was - 570, and the spread between lh2605 and lh2609 contracts was - 1,475 [25]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Base Difference: This week, the base difference of the live hog March contract was 1,740 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the May contract was 975 yuan/ton [29]. - Spot Prices: The national average live hog market price this week was 12.49 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 29.24 yuan/kg, the same as last week. The national pork market price on February 5 was 18.48 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of二元sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [39][45]. - Pig - to - Grain Ratio: As of the week of January 28, 2026, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.76, a decrease of 0.06 from the previous week, still below 6:1 [49]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream Situation - Breeding Sows: In December 2025, the number of breeding sows was 39.61 million. According to Mysteel data, the number of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms in January increased slightly by 0.02% month - on - month, while that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.36% month - on - month [51][55]. - Live Hog Inventory: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the live hog inventory was 429.67 million, a decrease of 1.6% quarter - on - quarter and an increase of 0.5% year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, the live hog inventory in 123 large - scale farms in January decreased by 0.70% month - on - month, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms in December decreased by 0.02% month - on - month [61]. - Slaughter Volume and Average Weight: In January, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms decreased by 3.27% month - on - month, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.71% month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of national ternary live hogs this week was 123.26 kg, a decrease of 0.30 kg from last week [66]. 3.3.2 Overall Industry Situation - Breeding Profits: As of February 6, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 91.42 yuan/head, a decrease of 32.71 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live hogs was - 38.09 yuan/head, a decrease of 63.19 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was 0.03 yuan/hen, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 yuan/hen; the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 0.21 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/chicken [69]. - Pork Import: In December 2025, China's pork import volume was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%. From January to December, the pork import volume was 980,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41% [74]. - Substitute Products: As of the week of February 6, the price of white - striped chicken was 14 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.3 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of February 5, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 1.09 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.26 yuan/kg from last week [78]. - Feed Situation: As of February 6, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,159.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,368.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.84 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange live hog feed cost index was 905.95. The average market price of live hog feed was 2.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from last week. In December 2025, the monthly feed output was 30.086 million tons, an increase of 307,000 tons month - on - month. The sales of piglet feed increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 1.35% year - on - year [83][89][94]. - CPI: As of December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year [99]. 3.3.3 Downstream Situation - Slaughter and Demand: In the sixth week of 2026, the slaughtering enterprise's开工率 was 38.49%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points from last week and 27.65 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh sales rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 88.18%, an increase of 0.75% from last week; the frozen - product storage capacity rate was 17.00%, a decrease of 0.29% from last week. As of December 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 48.91 million, an increase of 17.52% month - on - month. In December 2025, the national catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.19% [103][109]. 3.3.4 Live Hog - Related Stocks - Stock Information: The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. [113]