合成橡胶市场周报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market showed an oscillating downward trend, with the spot price ranging from 12,300 to 13,050 yuan/ton. Due to the expected decline in downstream demand for raw material butadiene and the expected increase in domestic supply, the high - cost pressure on cis - butadiene rubber production has slightly eased [6]. - In the short term, the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises is expected to increase. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has declined this week, and it is expected to further decrease in the short term [6]. - The br2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,500 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market oscillated downward this week, with the spot price ranging from 12,300 - 13,050 yuan/ton. The high - cost pressure on production has slightly eased. As of February 5, 2026, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 13,000 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was 13,000 - 13,100 yuan/ton [6]. - Market Outlook: Domestic cis - butadiene rubber production facilities have few shutdowns recently, and supply remains high. Pre - Spring Festival procurement is mostly over. Some traders are offering discounts to raise funds. Downstream procurement has basically ended, and new transactions have decreased, mainly focusing on提货. The inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises is expected to increase in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has declined and is expected to further decrease [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: The br2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,500 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 4.5% [10]. - Position Analysis: Not detailed in the provided content - Inter - period Spread: As of February 6, the 3 - 4 spread of butadiene rubber was - 55 [17]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of February 6, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 11,110 tons, an increase of 1,590 tons from last week [20]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Spot Price: As of February 5, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week [25]. - Basis: As of February 5, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 205 yuan/ton, an increase of 235 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Naphtha and Ethylene Prices: As of February 5, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 604.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7.75 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 690 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory: As of February 6, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 73.12%, an increase of 1.58% from last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 38,400 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from last week [31]. 3.3.2 Industry - Production and Capacity Utilization: In January 2026, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 149,900 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. As of February 5, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 78.86%, an increase of 1.87% from last week [34]. - Production Profit: As of February 5, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from last week [37]. - Inventory: As of February 6, the social inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 33,130 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from last week. The manufacturer's inventory was 27,100 tons, a decrease of 550 tons from last week; the trader's inventory was 6,030 tons, a decrease of 750 tons from last week [42]. 3.3.3 Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points [45]. - Tire Exports: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative tire exports were 8,430,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 251,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.79%, with cumulative exports from January to December of 3,215,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.27%; the exports of truck and bus tires were 413,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.40%, with cumulative exports from January to December of 4,858,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.87% [48].