贵金属市场周报：市场定价鹰派降息预期，金银价格大幅回调-20260206

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, a series of macro - events led by the Wash nomination triggered a significant shock in the market, causing the global precious metals market to experience an accelerated correction. In the short - term, market volatility may remain high, but geopolitical uncertainties provide bottom support for gold prices. In the medium - to - long - term, as market sentiment stabilizes, the precious metals market may return to a pricing framework dominated by macro and fundamentals. With the cooling of inflation and employment data, there may be a mid - term easing expectation, and the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still holds, but it is recommended to wait and see due to short - term high volatility [6]. - The actual impact of Wash's election as the Fed Chairman on the interest - rate policy path may be relatively limited. If the cooling trend of inflation and employment data continues, the new Fed Chairman may adjust the interest - rate path and implement moderate interest - rate cuts. The support of medium - term easing expectations makes the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still valid, but short - term market fluctuations are intense, so it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the support levels of London gold at $4400 - 4500 per ounce and London silver at $55 - 60 per ounce [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: Macro - events led to market shocks and a correction in the precious metals market. The cooling of the US employment market increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Profit - taking and market liquidity tightening increased the selling pressure on precious metals. The cancellation of the Iran - US negotiation provided bottom support for gold prices. The increase in margin requirements for gold and silver futures may intensify short - term market fluctuations [6]. - Market Outlook: In the medium - to - long - term, the precious metals market may return to a macro - and fundamental - driven pricing framework. With the support of medium - term easing expectations, the logic of bottom - fishing still holds, but short - term high volatility suggests a wait - and - see approach. Focus on the support levels of London gold and silver [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - ETF Holdings: This week, the net position of gold ETFs decreased slightly, while that of silver ETFs increased [10]. - COMEX Net Long Positions: As of January 27, 2025, the net long positions of both COMEX gold and silver decreased [15][20]. - Basis: This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened week - on - week [21][25]. - Domestic - Foreign Price Difference: This week, the domestic - foreign price difference of gold and silver continued to converge [26][28]. - Inventory: This week, the inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the inventory of silver continued to decline significantly [29][31]. - Gold - Silver Ratio: This week, the gold - silver ratio continued to rebound [32][35]. 3. Industry Supply and Demand - Silver Industry: As of December 2025, the import of silver and silver ore increased significantly. The output of semiconductor integrated circuits increased due to the growth of silver demand in the semiconductor industry [37][41][43]. - Gold Supply and Demand: In 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold. The total global gold demand reached a record high [45][47]. - Silver Supply and Demand: In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand decreased slightly, narrowing the market shortage [48][50]. 4. Macro and Options - Macro Data: This week, the US dollar index strengthened, and the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose by nearly 2%. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury bond yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility declined, and the ratio of the S&P 500 to the London gold price increased significantly. Central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold, providing long - term structural support for gold prices [51][56][60].