玉米类市场周报：市场多空交织，玉米期价维持震荡-20260206

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn futures market is experiencing a narrow - range oscillation. The international market is affected by the loose supply - demand pattern of US corn, with potential import pressure. In the domestic market, the sales of Northeast corn are over 60%, and the market trading is gradually weakening. The price of Northeast corn is slightly weak, while that in North China and Huanghuai regions is mainly fluctuating slightly. The corn starch futures market is also oscillating. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream提货 is active, and the industry inventory is declining [8][10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Corn: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2,274 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last week. The international corn price is restricted by the loose supply - demand situation in the US. In the domestic market, Northeast farmers have sold over 60% of their corn, and market trading is weakening. The price of Northeast corn is slightly weak, and that in North China and Huanghuai regions is fluctuating slightly. The futures price has dropped from its short - term high [8]. - Corn Starch: The main 2603 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2,540 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last week. As the Spring Festival is approaching, logistics is about to stop, downstream is actively picking up goods, and the inventory is decreasing. As of February 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 995,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 3.21%, a month - on - month decline of 3.21%, and a year - on - year decline of 24.85%. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [10]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position Changes: The March contract of corn futures oscillated up and down this week, with a total position of 504,926 hands, a decrease of 369,773 hands from last week. The March contract of corn starch futures oscillated slightly up, with a total position of 126,882 hands, a decrease of 30,699 hands from last week [16]. - Top 20 Net Position Changes: The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 120,101, compared with - 187,331 last week, and the net short position decreased. The top 20 net position of starch futures this week was - 28,786, compared with - 27,519 last week, and the net short position increased [23]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 60,440, and those of corn starch were 11,611 [29]. - Spot Price and Basis: As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2,368.82 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active March contract of corn futures and the average spot price was + 94 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,700 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton. The basis between the March contract of corn starch futures and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 160 yuan/ton [34][38]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 5 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 54 yuan/ton, also at a relatively high level in the same period [43]. - Futures Spread between Starch and Corn: The spread between the March contracts of starch and corn was 266 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 434 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [52]. - Substitute Spread: As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2,531.67 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2,368.82 yuan/ton, with the wheat - corn spread at 162.85 yuan/ton. In the 6th week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 575 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [57]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn - Supply Side - Port Inventory: As of January 30, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 582,000 tons, an increase of 241,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 122,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.732 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports in the week was 706,000 tons, the same as last week [47]. - Domestic Corn Sales Progress: As of February 5, the overall sales progress of domestic corn was 63%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The sales progress in Northeast China was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 8% [59]. - Monthly Import Arrivals: In December 2025, China's total corn imports were 800,100 tons, an increase of 456,900 tons compared with 343,200 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 133.12%, and a month - on - month increase of 245,200 tons compared with 554,900 tons in the previous month [63]. - Feed Enterprise Corn Inventory Days: As of February 5, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 32.59 days, an increase of 0.66 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.07%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.89% [67]. - Demand Side - Pig and Sows Inventory: At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million from the end of last year, a growth of 0.5%. Among them, the sows inventory was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million, a decline of 2.9% [71]. - Breeding Profit: As of January 30, 2026, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 25.1 yuan/head, and that of purchasing piglets was 124.13 yuan/head [75]. - Starch and Alcohol Enterprise Profit: As of February 5, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 71 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 659 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 754 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 194 yuan/ton [80]. Corn Starch - Supply Side - Enterprise Inventory: As of February 4, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 5.127 million tons, an increase of 16.39% [84]. - Starch Enterprise Startup Rate and Inventory: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the total national corn processing volume was 614,100 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 316,200 tons, a decrease of 12,100 tons from last week; the weekly startup rate was 57.79%, a decrease of 2.2% from last week. As of February 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 995,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 3.21%, a month - on - month decline of 3.21%, and a year - on - year decline of 24.85% [88]. 4. Options Market Analysis - As of February 6, the main 2603 contract of corn oscillated up and down, and the corresponding implied volatility of options was 10.57%, a slight decrease of 0.22% from 10.79% last week. The implied volatility changed little this week and was at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].